[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
719 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 01S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 240 nm either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extends from the Straits of Florida to the
Yucatan Channel to the Yucatan Peninsula near Cancun, Mexico.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1021 mb high is
centered over the north-central Gulf near 30N89W. 10-15 kt
anticyclonic surface winds cover the Gulf. Light smoke is over the
S Gulf S of 25N. In the upper levels, mostly zonal flow with
strong subsidence is over the Gulf.

High pressure over the Gulf, in the wake of the front, will shift
eastward Wed through Thu night in response to another cold front
that will move over the NW Gulf early on Thu, reaching from
southeastern Louisiana to 25N91W and to the central Bay of
Campeche Thu night, from the Florida Big Bend to near 25N86W and
to the Yucatan Peninsula early on Fri, and to east of the area Fri
night. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected ahead
and behind the front. High pressure will become centered over the
NW Gulf on Sat, with a ridge extending southeastward to the SE
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds
are along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds are over the
NW Caribbean S of the front. Isolated moderate convection is
inland over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, S Guatemala, central
Honduras, and N Colombia. Scattered showers are over the Windward
Islands, the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba,
Jamaica, Costa Rica, and Panama. Light smoke is over the NW
Caribbean N of 15N and W of 82W.

Expect the cold front to weaken and dissipate by Tue. High
pressure NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds
in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Highest winds
will be near the coast of Colombia at night with building seas to
9 or 10 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N73W to the
Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the front N of 27N. Scattered showers are within
60 nm of the remainder of the front. A 1026 mb high is over the
central Atlantic near 30N50W. A cold front over the E Atlantic
extends from 31N11W to 23N30W to 23N40W. A dissipating stationary
front continues to 24N50W. Scattered showers are over the Canary
Islands.

Over the W Atlantic, the cold front  will reach from near 29N65W
to the Central Bahamas on Tue. The front is forecast to weaken
and become stationary from 27N65W to the NW Bahamas on Wed. High
pressure in the wake of the front will shift slowly eastward
across the area Wed through Sat. Winds and seas will increase over
much of the northwest waters Fri ahead of a cold front in the
Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions are possible ahead of the front by
Fri night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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