[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Apr 14 18:11:51 CDT 2019


AXNT20 KNHC 142311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
711 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from 01N18W to 03S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is
along the ITCZ from 01N-05S between 34W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 14/2100 UTC, a 1019 mb high is over the W Gulf of Mexico
near 24N96W. A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near
31N86W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N89W to the Bay of
Campeche near 19N93W. A squall line is ahead of the front from
30N83W to 25N86W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is over the NE Gulf and N Florida from 26N-31N between 82W-86W.
Similar convection is over the Yucatan Channel and the Yucatan
Peninsula from 18N-23N between 86W-89W. 20-25 kt NW winds are W of
the cold front. 15-20 kt S winds are E of the front. Dense smoke
is over the Yucatan Peninsula and the far E Bay of Campeche.
Medium to light smoke is over the remainder of the Gulf W of 85W.

The cold front will reach from near Naples, Florida to the
northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula early Mon, then begin
to weaken as it exits the southeast Gulf waters by early Mon
evening. The prefrontal squall line will move across the
remainder of the NE Gulf waters tonight. High pressure building
across the area in the wake of the front will shift eastward Wed
through Thu in response to another cold front that will be moving
across the central U.S. This front is expected to move over the NW
Gulf early on Thu, reach from near southeastern Louisiana to
25N93W and to the central Bay of Campeche Thu night and from near
Fort Myers, Florida to near western Cuba and to the northeast part
of the Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea, with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered moderate convection
is over central Cuba, central Honduras, W Panama, and N Colombia.
Scattered showers are over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and E Cuba.
Elsewhere, dense smoke is over the Gulf of Honduras, and the NW
Caribbean N of 15N and W of 83W.

Fresh to strong southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras will
diminish tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will continue through early
Thu, then expand north and east in coverage through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the E Atlantic near 31N20W and extends SW to
25N30W to 24N46W. A stationary front continues to 23N63W to
30N69W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. A 1027
mb high is centered over the central Atlantic, N of the front,
near 33N53W.

A cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast tonight,
preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds. The front will reach
from near Bermuda to Straits of Florida Tue, then weaken and
become stationary from near 27N65W to the northern Bahamas Wed.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front through early
Thu before shifting eastward through Fri night in response to the
next cold front that is expected to move to just offshore the
southeastern United States Fri night. Southerly winds will
increase and seas will build over much of the northwest and
central waters waters on Fri and Fri night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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