[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1019 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front has entered the western Gulf of Mexico. On 14/1200
UTC the front is forecast to extend from 30N88W to 24N91W to
18.5N95W. Northwest gale force winds are forecast south of 20N W
of front with seas 8 to 10 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W
to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 03S29W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is near of the ITCZ from 00N-06S between 28W- 44W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N-00N between 21W-
28W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also
moving off the coast of Liberia and into the Atlantic just south
of the monsoon trough north 00N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is entering the waters from south Louisiana near
29N91W and extends south and west into east-central Mexico near
22N9W. A pre-frontal trough is east of the front from 23N93W to
20N97W. There is also a secondary cold front moving into the
western Gulf from 29N92W to 25N97W. A squall line has developed
in the central Gulf stretching from the Alabama coastline to near
25N91W. This line is producing frequent lightning, gusty winds,
and low visibility. There is also a line of showers moving along
the southern portion of the cold front. Ahead of the front, fog
continues to be reported in the central Gulf with visibility
between 1.5-2 nm. Smoke is also moving into the western Gulf,
west of 90W, creating hazy skies. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds are seen in the central and eastern Gulf ahead of the front.
Behind the front, fresh to strong northerly winds are seen. See
above for more details on the developing gale in the southwest
Gulf.

The strong cold front will quickly move across the Gulf today,
and reach from Sarasota, Florida to the Yucatan peninsula by
early Monday. A brief period of minimal gale conditions is
expected off the coast of Veracruz Mexico today. Strong northwest
winds will follow the front this morning. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the front in the
northern Gulf. High pressure will build across the area on Monday
behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low-topped showers and clouds are quickly moving westward across
the Greater Antilles. In the southern Caribbean, showers are also
moving off of the coast of South America and into the southern
basin and the Windward Islands. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
trades are seen across the eastern and central basin with fresh to
strong winds north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras.

Fresh to strong southeast winds in Gulf of Honduras will continue
today, then diminish tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the south-
central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will continue through
Thu night and expand northward in coverage

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the waters near 26N35W and extends west to
24N53W. From that point, the boundary stalls as it extends to near
31N68W. Showers continue to move along the cold front within 50
nm of the boundary, including the tail- end of the front. More
organized line of showers is seen east of 30W near the boundary.
Showers are also moving south-southeast east of 72W. Otherwise,
high pressure continues ridging across the Atlantic anchored by a
1030 mb high near 34N54W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are
in the southern Atlantic. Behind the cold front, northerly fresh
to strong winds are seen.

A cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast tonight,
preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds. The front will reach
from Bermuda to Straits of Florida Tuesday, then weaken and
become stationary from 27N65W to the northern Bahamas Wednesday.
High pressure will prevail across the area Wednesday night and
Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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