[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning...

Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the
coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir through this
evening, with near gales persisting through Friday, according to
the Meteo-France forecast. For more details, refer to the Meteo
France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 00N26W to
03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 03N-08N
between 02W-13W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 240 nm S of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A prefrontal trough is along the coast of Texas from near Corpus
Christi at 29N96W to Brownsville at 26N97W. Radar imagery shows
scattered showers over Corpus Christi Texas. A weak cold front is
further inland over S Texas. 10-25 southerly winds are over the
Gulf of Mexico with strongest winds over the W Gulf W of 90W, and
weakest winds along the Florida coast. Smoke is noted over the W
Gulf W of 92W. Veracruz Mexico is reporting 5 mile visibility.
The E Gulf has mostly fair weather. In the upper levels, strong
subsidence is over the entire Gulf.

Relatively weak high pressure over the eastern and central Gulf
waters will continue to slide eastward through Sat as a rather
deep low pressure system and its associated cold front moves
across Texas. The low will track northeastward through Sun, with
the cold front moving off the Texas and southwestern Louisiana
coasts Sat night, reach from southeastern Louisiana to near 24N93W
and to near Veracruz early Sun and from Apalachicola to near
25N88W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun night. Strong
southeast winds along with building seas will develop across the
Gulf ahead of the front Fri through Sun. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. The front will be
followed by strong northerly winds across much of the Gulf, with
minimal gale force winds possible in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz
on Sun. Winds will begin to diminish over the NW Gulf Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low in the NW Bahamas to
west-central Cuba to a 1009 mb surface low near 18N83W to 16N84W.
This trough over the W Caribbean extends up to the mid to upper
levels of the atmosphere. Satellite imagery shows dry air over
the NW Caribbean north of 15N and west of 79W. Scattered showers
are observed near Jamaica and eastern Cuba north of 17N between
74W-79W. Isolated showers are over the NE Caribbean, including the
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh winds cover the
eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle winds are over the western
Caribbean.

The W Caribbean surface trough will dissipate by early Mon. Fresh
to strong southeast winds will develop over the far western
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras on Fri and continue into Sat
afternoon, then be mainly confined to the Gulf of Honduras through
Sun night. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will develop
over the south- central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia
Fri through Sun night, while expanding northward in coverage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect offshore of Morocco in the far eastern Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 32N60W to 30N70W, continuing as a
stationary front to 32N79W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of
the front. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 29N65W to
25N70W to Hispaniola near 20N71W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm of the trough. A large 1026 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 27N34W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level
trough is over the W Atlantic N of 20N between 70W-80W.

The cold front over the western Atlantic will move southeastward
to along a position from 28N65W to 27N74W tonight and become
stationary as strong high pressure builds southward over the
northeast and north-central waters. The stationary front will
weaken to a trough Fri and move northwestward to north of 31N Sat
night while weakening, while the high pressure shifts east-
southeastward and weakens. Fresh to strong northeast to east
winds over the far northern waters E of 75W will spread southward
to near 27N on Fri, then become mainly fresh east to southeast
winds on Sat and southeast to south moderate to fresh winds on Sun
as a cold front approaches the far northwest waters. This front
will move across the northwest and central sections Mon and Mon
night and over the northeast waters Tue and Tue night. It will be
preceded by fresh to strong south to southwest winds over the
waters north and northeast of the Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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