[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning...

Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the
coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir through this
evening, with near gales persisting through Friday, according to
the Meteo-France forecast. For more details, refer to the Meteo
France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 02S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 180 nm N and 300 nm S of the boundaries between the
coasts of Africa and South America. Within this activity, isolated
strong convection is seen from 00N-08N between 06W-16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong southerly return flow prevails over the western
Gulf. A NE-SW cold front is over Texas about 120 nm inland from
Galveston and about 90 nm inland from Corpus Christi. A pre-
frontal trough is right near the coast. There is currently little
to no precipitation noted with the trough. A 998 mb surface low
is along the trough just west of Brownsville. Over the eastern
Gulf, winds are moderate. No significant precipitation is noted
over the Gulf.

The cold front over Texas will be very near the Gulf Coast this
afternoon before lifting back this evening. Fresh to strong
southerly winds will continue in the western Gulf through today
before weakening tonight through Friday morning. Then fresh to
strong winds will return in the western Gulf Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
Saturday night, and reach from SE Louisiana to 18.5N94.5W Sun
afternoon and become nearly stationary Mon afternoon from the
Florida Straits to the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong NW
winds are expected behind the front, with strong to near gale
force NW winds in the SW Gulf near Veracruz on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low in the NW Bahamas to
west-central Cuba to a 1009 mb surface low near 18N83W to 16N84W.
This trough over the W Caribbean extends up to the mid to upper
levels of the atmosphere. Satellite imagery shows dry air over
the NW Caribbean north of 15N and west of 79W. Scattered showers
are observed near Jamaica and eastern Cuba north of 17N between
74W-79W. Isolated showers are over the NE Caribbean, including the
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh winds cover the
eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle winds are over the western
Caribbean.

The trough and surface low over the western Caribbean are forecast
to dissipate by tonight. Expect fresh to strong SE winds from
tonight until Sunday afternoon, from Honduras northward from 83W
westward. Offshore Colombia, fresh to strong trades will start
Friday morning. Fresh to strong winds will start on Friday night,
and last until Sunday afternoon, from 80W eastward. E to NE
strong to near gale force winds are then forecast along the coast
of Colombia, between 73W and 77W, Sat night through Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect offshore of Morocco in the far eastern Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 32N64W to 31N73W, continuing as a
stationary front to 30N81W. A weakening 1011 mb surface low was
over the NW Bahamas near 27N78W at 1200 UTC, but has been removed
from the analysis as of 1500 UTC. Two NE-SW surface troughs are
located to the NE of the Bahamas. A mid-upper level trough is over
the same area from central Cuba to the NE Bahamas and extends
northeastward. Scattered showers extend on the east side of the
mid-upper trough over eastern Cuba, the central Bahamas and
portions of the western Atlantic, generally within 180 nm of a
line from 21N76W to 24N75W to 31N64W. Within this activity, some
thunderstorms are seen near the central and NW Bahamas. High
pressure prevails over the central and eastern Atlantic, anchored
by a 1027 mb high near 28N31W

The cold front over the western Atlantic will be stretched toward
the SE, while the western part of the front will drift northward
tonight. Expect fresh-to-strong winds and building seas north of
27N between 65W-78W tonight, continuing through Friday as the
eastern part of the front continues away from the area. A surface
trough, the remnants of the front, will drift WNW Friday evening
through Saturday morning. It will support the continuation of
fresh to strong winds north of 28N between 65W-71W. S winds will
increase off northeast Florida, from Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. Another cold front, on Sunday night, will pass through
31N77W to the southern tip of Florida. The front will pass through
31N70W, across the NW Bahamas, to the coast of Cuba along 80W on
Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Hagen
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