[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101702
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning...

Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the
coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir through Thursday,
according to the Meteo-France forecast. For more details, refer to
the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to the coast of Brazil
near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-08S
between 10W-30W along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow moving frontal boundary extends off the southwest coast of
Florida near 27N82W to the Caribbean. Some showers associated
with the front and digging mid-level trough are moving across the
eastern Gulf onto the western coast of Florida. Otherwise, benign
conditions prevail across the rest of the basin as a 1014 mb high
is centered right off the northwest Yucatan near 27N57W. Winds are
generally light to gentle out of the north-northwest.

The frontal boundary will drift southward and dissipate over the
next day. In response to a strong low pressure system over the
U.S. Plains, southerly return flow will be enhanced in the
western Gulf through Thursday. A ridge of high pressure north of
the Gulf will subsequently promote quiescent conditions through
Saturday morning. By late Saturday, southeasterly return flow
will be enhanced ahead of the next cold front, which should emerge
off of the Texas coast on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A slow moving boundary extending across the southeast Gulf of
Mexico stretches across the northwest Caribbean to just off the
coast of Belize. Ahead of the front, numerous showers with
embedded thunderstorms are seen moving across Cuba and the west-
central Caribbean and beginning to approach Jamaica. A pre-frontal
trough is also seen ahead of the front from 27N53W to 24N54W. To
the east, low-topped showers are quickly moving across the Lesser
Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. Gentle to
moderate trades are seen across most of the Caribbean, with light
trades in the southwest portion of the basin. Ahead of the
incoming front, winds are gentle out the south-southeast. Behind
the front, winds are mostly gentle out of the northwest.

The front will drift eastward today before dissipating tonight. A
weak ridge to the north will promote only moderate to fresh
breeze tradewinds across the Caribbean through Friday. As the
ridge strengthens and increases the pressure gradient, winds,
particularly north of Colombia and north of Honduras, will be
enhanced on Saturday and Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the far east Atlantic waters.

A cold front continues to push east off the Florida coast. A 1008
mb low located near 31N53W has a cold front extending southwest
to near Daytona Beach, Florida where the boundary begins to stall.
Scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms are
moving north off of Cuba into the Bahamas ahead of the front.
Showers are also seen west of 40W. Surface riding prevails across
the remainder of the basin with a 1026 mb high located near
30N27W.

The boundary pushing off the northeast coast of Florida is
expected to dissipate by Thursday. Another cold front will reach
the area tonight, pushing eastward and extending from 28N65W to
27N75W on Friday morning. Strong NE winds will develop north of
the front Thursday and Friday before weakening Sat and Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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