[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070516
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
116 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from N Liberia near 06N10W to 03N14W to
02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W, to 01N30W to 01N28W to
Brazil near 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
04N-03S between 11W-27W. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N-04S between 33W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the NW Gulf of Mexico.
10-25 kt SE return flow is over the entire Gulf with lightest
winds over the NE Gulf, and  strongest winds along the Yucatan
Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows low stratus or fog along
coastal areas from Tampico Mexico to St. Marks Florida. More fog
is over the NW Gulf N of 26N and W of 90W. Broken upper level
clouds are over the W Gulf W of 93W.

Surface ridging with moderate to fresh return flow will prevail
across the basin through Sun evening except in the SW gulf waters
where a surface trough moving off the Yucatan Peninsula will
enhance the winds to strong at night. A cold front will enter the
NW waters Sun evening and will reach from southern Mississippi to
25N93W to the Bay of Campeche by Mon afternoon, and from the
Florida Big Bend to just N of the Yucatan Peninsula by Tue
afternoon. The front will weaken and exit the SE gulf waters Wed
morning. Heavy showers and tstms are expected with the front
across the northern gulf waters Sun evening through early Tue and
in the SE basin Tue through early Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola. Similar scattered showers are over the SW Caribbean
along the coasts of S Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and W Panama. Upper
level ridging is over the entire Caribbean Sea with strong
subsidence.

High pressure N of the region will support fresh to strong trade
winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue, reaching
near gale force off Colombia mainly at night. This pattern will
also support fresh to strong winds at night in the Gulf of
Honduras through Mon night. Long-period NE swell will propagate
through the waters E of the Windward Islands through Sun morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A quasi-stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to
29N75W to beyond 31N79W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
along the Florida coast from 30N-32N W of 79W. A 1031 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 37N48W. High pressure
ridging dominates the central and eastern Atlantic.

The W Atlantic front will move E as it weakens and dissipate by Sun
morning. High pressure will establish across the region afterwards
and will continue through Tue night. A surface low will track NE
from the southern U.S. late on Tue with an associated cold front
that will enter the NW waters on Wed morning. The front will reach
from near 30N70W to the northern Bahamas Wed night and from
30N65W to 27N72W Thu evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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