[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062218
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 PM EDT Sat Apr 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2140 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 03N14W, to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W,
to 01N25W and 01N28W, crossing the Equator along 32W, to 02S37W,
and to the Equator along 43W. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from the Equator to 03N between 35W and 38W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from the
Equator to 01N between 41W and 43W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere from 05N southward from 10W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
Rainshowers are possible from 24N northward. Warming cloud top
temperatures and weakening, but still lingering, precipitation
remains. Gentle-to-moderate SE winds are present.

Surface ridging, and return moderate-to-fresh wind flow, will
prevail across the Gulf of Mexico through Sunday evening. The
exception is in the SW corner of the area, where a surface trough,
that is forecast to be moving off the Yucatan Peninsula, will
enhance the winds to strong at night. A cold front will enter the
NW waters on Sunday evening, and will reach from southern
Mississippi to 25N93W to the Bay of Campeche by Monday afternoon,
and from the Florida Big Bend to just N of the Yucatan Peninsula
by Tuesday afternoon. The front will weaken and exit the SE Gulf
waters on Wednesday morning. Heavy rainshowers with thunder are
expected with the front, across the northern Gulf of Mexico, from
Sunday evening through early Tuesday, and in the SE basin from
Tuesday through early Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from SE Cuba to the central coastal
areas of Nicaragua.

The GFS model for 07/0000 UTC for 250 mb shows a ridge from
09N60W, off the extreme NE corner of Venezuela, across Venezuela
and Colombia, to the border of Colombia and Panama. The current
water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level anticyclonic wind
flow to the east of the SE Cuba-to-Nicaragua trough.

Rainshowers are possible in the SW corner of the area from 13N
southward from 78W westward, and across much of the open waters of
the Caribbean Sea to the north of 11N69W 13N76W 14N83W.

High pressure N of the region will support fresh-to-strong trade
winds across the south central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. The
wind speeds are forecast to reach near gale-force off Colombia
mainly at night. This pattern also will support fresh- to-strong
winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Monday night. Long-
period NE swell will propagate through the waters to the E of the
Windward Islands through Sunday morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N59W to 23N74W in the
central Bahamas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 30N northward between 54W and 63W, and from 25N to 28N
between 65W and 70W.

A stationary front is along 32N, from 45W to 69W. The front
becomes warm from 32N69W, to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is
near 34N74W. A cold front extends from the low pressure center,
through 32N72W, to 30N74W and 30N77W. The front becomes stationary
again, and it continues northwestward, into Georgia. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in NE Florida, in the
southern half of Georgia, and in the coastal waters of Georgia.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers in general area
from 30N to 34N between 54W and 63W.

The current W Atlantic Ocean frontal boundary will move E, as it
weakens and dissipates by Sunday morning. High pressure will
become established across the region, and it will continue
through Tuesday night. A low pressure center will track NE from
the southern U.S.A. late on Tuesday, with an associated cold
front that will enter the NW waters on Wednesday morning. The
front will reach from near 30N70W, to the northern Bahamas on
Wednesday night, and from 30N65W to 27N72W on Thursday evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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