[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061701
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 PM EDT Sat Apr 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leon near
07N12W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 01S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 04N-09S between 27W-38W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 06N-01S between 15W-24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers along with cloudiness prevails across most the
northern and central Gulf. Fog continues to be reported across
the western and northern Gulf. Winds are generally gentle to
moderate out of the south- southeast. Otherwise, surface ridging
is seen across most of the Gulf. Mid to upper level ridge
centered over the Caribbean is providing subsidence particularly
in the southeast Gulf and South Florida.

A moist SE wind flow south of the ridge will support patchy fog,
some dense, over much of the northern Gulf until Sunday morning.
SE winds will increase over the western Gulf today as the Yucatan
Peninsula trough shifts west over the southwest Gulf. A cold front
could bring strong to severe thunderstorms to the Texas coast
late Sunday night, then east along the northern Gulf coast Monday.
The cold front will cross the basin Monday and Tuesday but weaken
into a trough as it reaches the far southeast Gulf by late
Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 mb low sits right off the coast of Colombia near 09N76W
with a trough extending from the low to near 12N72W. Light to
moderate showers continue moving across the eastern portion of the
Greater Antilles. Meanwhile, light showers are moving west across
the Lesser Antilles in addition to Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands. Showers and clouds are also seen across the western
Caribbean off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. Moderate to
fresh trades are occuring throughout the central and eastern
Caribbean with strong winds north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate
trades are across the north and western Caribbean. The mid to
upper level ridge is centered over the central portion of the
basin which is providing subsidence to the area and inhibiting
convection.

High pressure north of the region will support fresh to
strong trade winds across the southeast and south central
Caribbean through early next week, reaching near gale force off
Colombia mainly at night. This pattern will also support fresh to
strong winds through the Gulf of Honduras into early next week.
Long-period NE swell will propagate through the waters east of
the Leeward Islands through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the waters at 31N75W and extends to 29N76W
with showers moving along the boundary. A trough extends from
28N67W to 24N73W. Scattered to widespread showers are seen moving
north- northeast across the southern Bahamas and within 120 nm of
this trough. A 1031 mb high centered near 39N56W is ridging across
the central and western Atlantic.

The surface trough will gradually weaken as it shifts west
through early this evening and is replaced by high pressure
ridging west across the northern and central waters through
Tuesday. The ridging will begin to slide eastward late on Tuesday
in response to low pressure that will track northeast from the
southern U.S. A cold front associated with this low is expected to
emerge off the Southeast U.S. coast late on Tuesday, then weaken
and stall over the waters near the northern Bahamas Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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