[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060943
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
543 AM EDT Sat Apr 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 02S30W to the coast
of South America near 03S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 03N-08S between 27W-37W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 05N-02S between 38W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers persist over the Florida Panhandle. These
showers are due to a stationary front N of the Gulf, and to some
upper level diffluence. More scattered showers are inland over SE
Texas. Satellite imagery shows low stratus clouds or fog along
the Texas and Louisiana coasts. 5-15 kt southerly surface winds
are over the entire Gulf. Upper level cloudiness is over most of
the Gulf, except the SE Gulf and S Florida where strong
subsidence prevails.

High pressure extends from the Atlantic to the
NE Gulf waters. A moist southeast wind flow south of the ridge
will support areas to patches of fog, some dense, over much of the
northern Gulf into early Sun. The southeast wind flow will
begin to increase over the western Gulf today as the high
pressure builds some to the west and the Yucatan Peninsula trough
shifts westward to the SW Gulf. A cold front, preceded by
scattered showers and possible strong to severe thunderstorms, is
expected to approach the Texas coast late Sun night, and move
over the far NW Gulf early on Mon. It will move across the basin
through early next week while weakening to a trough as it reaches
the far southeastern Gulf by late on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large area of rain and showers are over the Windward Islands.
Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, E Cuba, and Jamaica. Similar scattered showers are
over the SW Caribbean along the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica,
and W Panama. Scattered moderate convection is inland over SW
Colombia. In the upper levels, a very sharp upper level trough is
over the W Caribbean with trough axis along 83W. An upper level
ridge is over the E Caribbean with subsidence.

High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong
trade winds across the southeast and south central Caribbean
through early next week, reaching near gale force off Colombia
mainly at night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong
winds through the Gulf of Honduras into early next week. Long-
period northeast swell will propagate through the waters east of
the Leeward Islands through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 27N-30N
between 75W-79W. Further E, a surface trough is over the W
Atlantic from 28N70W to 23N72W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm of the trough. Additional showers are over the Bahamas. A large
1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N34W.

Troughing over the far western waters will gradually weaken as it
shifts eastward through early this evening, and is replaced by
high pressure ridging that will extend westward across the
northern and central waters through Tue. The ridging will begin to
slide eastward late on Tue in response to low pressure that will
track northeastward from the southern U.S. A cold front associated
with this low is expected to emerge off the southeastern U.S.
coast late on Tue, and move across the western central forecast
waters through Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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