[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of N Liberia near
07N12W to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 03S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 00N-05N between 00W-04W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 05N-01S between 10W-23W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 04N-02S between 33W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf of Mexico and N
Florida due to upper level diffluence E of an upper level trough
axis along 92W. As of 05/0900 UTC, a 1013 mb low formed over the
NW Gulf of Mexico near Houston Texas. A warm front extends E from
the low to S Mississippi. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt
southerly surface flow. Satellite imagery shows dense fog along
the NE Mexico coast, together with the Texas and Louisiana coasts.
Satellite imagery also shows smoke in the SW Gulf and S Mexico.

High pres will prevail across the basin through Sun before
retreating eastward. This will enable a cold front to move off the
Texas coast early Mon. The front will extend from near Louisiana
to the Bay of Campeche Mon night, then from the Florida panhandle
to the Yucatan Peninsula Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are over the north-central and NW Caribbean,
namely over W Hispaniola, E Cuba, and Jamaica. Otherwise, fair
weather conditions prevails elsewhere mostly due to an upper level
ridge with very strong subsidence.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E
winds across the S central Caribbean through Tue night. Winds will
pulse to near gale force each night through Mon night. Otherwise,
mainly moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the
Caribbean and tropical Atlantic W of 55W through Sun night, except
fresh to strong near the Windward Passage tonight, and in the
Gulf of Honduras this weekend. Fresh easterly swell will build in
the tropical Atlantic today through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N62W to a 1020 mb
low near 28N65W to 24N70W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of
the trough. A 1029 mb high is over the central Atlantic near
35N37W.

The surface trough will drift westward while dissipating today.
High pressure will then prevail over the W Atlantic through Mon
before starting to retreat eastward ahead of a cold front which
will move off the SE coast of the United States on Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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