[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N13W
to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along both
boundaries mainly south of 03N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front continues across the Straits of
Florida. Scattered showers are noted along and within 120 nm north
of the front affecting southern Florida. A warm front is
developing over the north-central Gulf from 29N90W to 30N92W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails along and north of the
front. To the west, a surface trough extends across the Bay of
Campeche with no significant convection. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across the basin.

Surface ridging across the forecast waters will retreat eastward
on Sunday ahead of the next cold front, which will move off the
Texas coast by late Sunday. The front will extend from near
Mississippi to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northeast winds
mainly east of 75W, while gentle to moderate easterly winds
prevail west of 75W. Low topped scattered showers are noted in
satellite imagery across the northern half of the basin.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh
northeast winds across the south-central Caribbean through Monday.
Winds will pulse to near-gale force each night through early
morning off the Colombian coast. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to
fresh trade winds will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the Atlantic waters at 31N62W to the
northeast Bahamas near 26N74W, then becomes weak to 25N80W.
Scattered showers prevail along the front. To the east, a 1020 mb
surface low is located near 27N66W. A surface trough extends
from the low to 22N71W. Scattered showers are noted near the low.
Surface ridging prevails elsewhere, anchored by a 1033 mb high
centered near 37N39W.

The stationary front will gradually dissipate through Friday.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front and prevail
across the area through the weekend. The high pressure will start
to retreat eastward on Monday ahead of the next cold front which
will approach the western waters Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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