[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Africa near 05N03W to 00N17W. The
ITCZ continues from 00N17W to the coast of Brazil near 02S39W.
Numerous to scattered moderate strong convection is seen north of
the monsoon trough and the ITCZ from 01N-06N near the coast of
Liberia west to 19W. Another area of scattered moderate convection
is noted 02S to the Equator between 12W-15W. West of 19W to the
coast of Brazil, more scattered to moderate convection is seen
extended between 100 to 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating cold front extends from Key West to the central
Gulf near 23N89W. A surface trough is seen near the coast of
Mexico, near 22N97W to 19N95W. There is also a trough from
22N89W south along the Yucatan Peninsula. Along the NW coast of
FL, another trough extends from 29N84W to 28N83W. Showers and
thunderstorms are seen along and south of the front in the
eastern Gulf just off the southwest Florida coast. There are also
light showers and clouds moving across the western and northern
Gulf. Scatterometer data shows winds between light and gentle out
of the north-northeast as high pressure builds into the region.
In the central and western Gulf, winds are moderate to fresh out
of the east.

A dissipating cold front from across the Florida Keys to N of the
Yucatan Peninsula near 23.5N90W will dissipate as it continues SE
today. High pres building in the wake of the front will prevail
through Sun. The next cold front may move into the NW and N central
Gulf Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical jet stream stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean
east-northeast to the north-central Caribbean and to the northeast
Caribbean. To the south of this jet stream branch, moist atmosphere
is present at the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Scattered
to broken low-level clouds are moving quickly westward in the trade
wind flow. Some of these may contain isolated showers, with the
exception of the area from 16N to 18N and between 72W to 74W, where
a large patch of low clouds with scattered showers and isolated
weak thunderstorms is present. Gentle to moderate trades are seen
across the eastern and central Caribbean. Light to gentle trades
are seen in the northwest Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are
seen from 13N73W N of Colombia.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds
across the S central Caribbean through Sun night, pulsing to near
gale force at night. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trade
winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic W of
55W through Sun night, except fresh to strong near the Windward
Passage at night starting tonight, and in the Gulf of Honduras
this weekend. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical
Atlantic by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The cold front enters the waters at 31N70W and extends southwestward
into the northern Bahamas into the Florida Keys near 25N80W. Showers
are seen along and ahead of the front west of 73W. A pre-frontal
trough is seen 80 nm southeast of the front extending from 29N70W
across the southern Bahamas near 23N74W. Further east, a trough is
seen from 31N52W to 27N56W. No significant convection is observed
with this trough. North of Puerto Rico, another trough is present
from 25N65W to 19N67W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
north of the trough axis from 24N between 61W-65W.

A cold front near 31N71W and across the northern Bahamas will
stall from near 30N65W to the Straits of Florida by tonight. High
pres will build in the wake of the front and prevail across the
area through Sun night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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