[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021057
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
657 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front over the West Atlantic will move east across the
basin while northerly winds strengthen to near-gale force behind
the front. Near-gale force winds are noted north of 30N and west
of 78W. Gale warning continues into Tuesday afternoon with seas
ranging from 8-11 ft. These conditions will continue through
Tuesday night, 03/0000 UTC. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the
following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of
Brazil near 04S35W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 01S-06N between 11W-22W and from 04S-00N between 22W-29W.
Another cluster of scattered moderate strong convection is noted
from the Equator to 02N between 02W-08W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped from the eastern Gulf to the southern
Bay of Campeche. The front enters the Gulf from Tampa Bay, FL
near 27N82W and stretches westward to 24N90W to a 1017 mb low
pres 21N94W, then the stationary front continues south to the Bay
of Campeche 18N93W. Showers are along and about 100 nm ahead of
the front.

There are several surface troughs in the analysis. Starting with
a trough in the Panhandle of FL from 30N86W to 28N86W. Second
trough extends from 27N95W to 23N95W. South of the 1017 mb low
pressure, a third trough is southeast of the low 21N93W to 20N91W.
Another trough is observed from 23N87W into the Yucatan Peninsula.
Light showers and overcast skies are seen on satellite across the
northern and western Gulf. North of the front, ASCAT shows
moderate to fresh north-northeast winds. Areas of dense fog
have develop in central Florida near the Lake Okeechobee. South
of the front, southerly light to gentle winds are observed.
Generally clear conditions are seen south of the front. A surface
trough is seen from 23N87W into the Yucatan Peninsula.

A stationary front extends from near Sarasota Florida to across
the central Gulf near 26N88W to low pres near 18N94W continuing
to Mexico near 18N94W. The front will begin to move SE and exit
the basin through the rest of today. High pres following the front
will slide E across the southern United States Wed and Thu.
Moderate E winds over the Gulf Wed will veer to SE and become
moderate to fresh for the end of the week into the upcoming
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are seen moving northeast off the coast of
Costa Rica and Panama into the southwest and central Caribbean.
These showers are also moving across Hispaniola and north of
Puerto Rico. Otherwise, benign conditions prevail as strong
subsidence is over the Caribbean due to a mid-upper level ridge.
Gentle trades are seen across the eastern and northwestern
Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades across the central
Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are north of
Colombia.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E
winds across S central portions through Sat night, pulsing to near
gale force at night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds
will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic W of 55W
through Sat night, except fresh to strong across the approach to
the Windward Passage Wed night, and in the Gulf of Honduras Sat
night. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical Atlantic by
the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a 1016 mb low pressure is located near
30N80W and a second low is further east near 30N77W. A stationary
front extends south near Palm Beach, FL near 27N79W. A trough
also extended south of this low to 25N80W. Scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms are seen northeast of the warm front and to
the east of the front. A warm front continues east along 30N,
then transitions to a cold front to 30N67W. A surface trough is
observed from 31N52W to 25N57W. Scattered showers area seen in the
vicinity of the boundary. A 1012 mb low pressure is further east
near the Canary Island 26N20W with a trough extending south west
to 21N24W. A dissipating front extends northeast from the low to
31N14W and connects to a occluded front north of the area.
Scattered showers are near the vicinity of the two boundaries into
the Canary Islands.

A cold front extends from 31N67W to low pres near 30N77W to
another low pres near 27N80W. Gale force winds are in the N
semicircle of the low. This low will dissipate while new low pres
rapidly develops and intensifies N of the area SE of the
Carolinas. That low will drag a cold front across the Bahamas this
afternoon through early Wed, with additional gale force winds
this afternoon. High pres following the front will build over the
waters N of the Bahamas Wed and Thu. A weak low and front may
develop over the NW waters by the end of the week into the
upcoming weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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