[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
758 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front over the West Atlantic will move east across the
basin while northerly winds strengthen to near-gale force behind
the front. By Tuesday 02/1800 UTC, gale-force winds are expected
north of 29N between 73W-80W. Seas will range from 8-11 ft. These
conditions will continue through Tuesday night, 03/0000 UTC.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 03S25W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S42W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 01N-09S between 15W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped from the eastern Gulf to the
southern Bay of Campeche. The front enters the Gulf south of Tampa
Bay, FL near 27N82W and stretches westward to 23N94W to 18N95W. A
trough also extended from the stationary front to just off the
Deep South Texas Coast from 23N95W to 26N97W. Showers are along
and about 100 nm ahead of the front right off the west coast of
Florida. Meanwhile, light showers and overcast skies are seen on
satellite across the northern and western Gulf. North of the
front, ASCAT shows moderate to fresh north- northeast winds. South
of the front, southerly light to gentle winds are observed. There
is an area of strong winds in the southwest portion of the Bay of
Campeche. Generally clear conditions are also seen south of the
front.

The strong winds along the Tamaulipas coast of Mexico will
diminish this evening. The front will begin to move southeast and
exit the basin by Tuesday night. High pressure following the
front will slide east across the southern United States Wednesday
and Thursday. Moderate east winds over the Gulf on Wednesday will
veer to southeast and become moderate to fresh for the end of the
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are seen moving northeast off the coast of
Costa Rica and Panama into the southwest Caribbean. These showers
are also moving across Jamaica and Hispaniola. Meanwhile, showers
are seen on radar moving across Puerto Rico. Otherwise, benign
conditions prevail as strong subsidence is over the Caribbean due
to a mid-upper level ridge. Gentle trades are seen across the
eastern and northwestern Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades
across the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds
are north of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
northeast to east winds across the south-central portions of the
basin through Wednesday. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds
will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of
55W through Friday. Fresh easterly swell will build in the
tropical Atlantic by the end of the week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front enters the waters near
31N70W and stretches southwest into Melbourne Beach, FL near
28N80W. A trough also extended north of this front from 28N79W to
30N80W. Scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms
are seen north of the front, north of 29N and west of 71W. Another
cold front also enters the waters near 31N53W to 22N61W. From
22N61W, the tail end of the boundary stalls from that point to
20N67W. A pre-frontal trough is east of the front from 26N56W to
21N61W. Another trough is also behind the front entering the
waters near 31N56W to 26N62W to 27N68W. Light showers are along
the cold front and stationary front in addition to the pre-
frontal trough. Near the Canary Islands, a 1012 mb low is well
north of the islands near 34N18W with a dying occlusion and cold
front. However, a cold front that is pushing across the central
portion of the islands extends westward into a 1012 mb near
27N21W. From this low, the cold front continues to extend
westward to 27N43W. Widespread showers are to the north of the
islands with with scattered showers along the front moving
eastward across the area.

The cold front located off the east coast of Florida will stall
and begin to lift north tonight and Tuesday as low pressure
deepens rapidly along the front east of Georgia. This low will
support gale force winds over the waters north of 30N by Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. See above for more detail. The
intense low will shift northeast and drag the cold front across
the Bahamas on Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday. High
pressure following the front will build over the waters north of
the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, the stationary
front from 22N61W to 20N67W will begin dissipating tonight. A
weak low and front may develop over the northwest waters by the
end of the week.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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