[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Leslie centered near 33.5N 53.2W at 30/2100 UTC
or 590 nm E of Bermuda moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
31N-35N between 50W-53W. The Public Advisories for Leslie are
transmitted via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCPAT3. The Forecast/Advisories for Leslie are
transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT3.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 16N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-11N between 35W-41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is E of the wave axis from 14N-20N between 69W-75W.
Similar convection is W of the wave axis from 12N-16N between
77W-83W.

A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 96W from 20N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
is over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico from 16N-22N between
94W-98W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 10N25W to 06N34W. The ITCZ is along 06N36W
04N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between
21W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is digging through Texas from the east
central sections into northern and north central sections of
Mexico. A separate surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico from 20N to 23N about 90 nm to the NNE of the coast of
Mexico. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 120 nm
of the coast of Louisiana between 91W and 94W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the coasts of
Texas and Mexico from 23N to 28N.

Much of the Gulf of Mexico from 29N southward, and from 89W
westward, is covered by upper level cyclonic wind flow. This same
area of upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N northward from 68W westward, and the Caribbean Sea
to the NW of the line that runs from Hispaniola to eastern
Honduras.

Surface high pressure will prevail in the forecast area. A surface
trough will develop each evening in the Yucatan peninsula. The
trough will move into the SW Gulf of Mexico overnight, where it
will dissipate each morning. Moderate to fresh winds will
accompany the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 68W westward, and the Caribbean Sea to the NW of
the line that runs from Hispaniola to eastern Honduras. Widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers
are in the Straits of Florida between 75W and 84W, between the
Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to
the NW of the line that runs from Hispaniola to eastern Honduras.

Moderate to fresh winds will persist in the central and eastern
sections of the Caribbean Sea through Tuesday morning. Gentle to
moderate winds will dominate the entire basin during the remainder
of the period. A surface low pressure center is forecast to
develop off the coast of Nicaragua on Thursday, and it is expected
to track NNE to the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea next weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is along 31N/32N from 62W westward. Isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers cover the waters from 29N northward
from 62W westward. Surface cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 24N northward between 43W and 64W. This cyclonic wind
flow is associated with Tropical Storm Leslie. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 24N northward between 47W and 63W. Other
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are just
to the east, from 20N northward between 35W and 47W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 68W westward. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are in the Straits of
Florida between 75W and 84W, between the Bahamas, Cuba, and
Florida.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net