[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Kirk is near 14.2N 60.2W at 27/2100
UTC. Kirk is moving toward the WNW or 290 degrees 12 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 1000 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speed is 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots.
Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days
while the system moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Kirk is
forecast to become a tropical depression Friday night, and
degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Sunday. Strong winds
and heavy rain are expected to spread over portions of the Lesser
Antilles tonight. Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4
to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward
Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across
Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides. Across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto
Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and Saturday. Currently,
satellite imagery indicates numerous moderate to strong convection
within 150 nm SE quadrant of center, and numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection elsewhere from 11.5N-15.5N between
55W-60W. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie, located over the central Atlantic
Ocean several hundred miles west of the Azores, remains a powerful
non-tropical low with storm-force winds. The associated shower
activity is gradually becoming better organized, and Leslie is
expected to again become a subtropical storm, or possibly a
tropical storm, tonight or Friday while it moves west-southwestward
at about 10 mph over the north-central Atlantic. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 30W from 03N-19W. Limited convection is
near the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends from 18N39W to 04N41W. Scattered showers
are ahead and behind the wave axis, mainly from 09N-12N between
35W and 43W.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 78W from 20N
southward. The wave is helping to induce some showers activity
over Jamaica, and also over the SW Caribbean along with the
monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
Bissau near 12N16W to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from 10N19W to
06N35W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 03N to 08N between 15W and 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over the NW Gulf
are associated with a cold front that extends from SE Louisiana
to NE Mexico near 25N97W. The front will stall over the NW Gulf
and enhance shower and thunderstorm activity through Fri before
it weakens and drifts north of the area. Otherwise, high pres NE
of the region will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and
seas less than 4 ft across most of the Gulf waters through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical STorm Kirk will bring strong winds and heavy rain over
portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight. Please, see Special
Features section for details. A tropical wave is moving across the
Caribbean Sea. See Tropical Wave section for details.

Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the
Caribbean waters through early next week. Large northerly swell
will affect the tropical Atlantic waters Fri through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N32W to 22N50W to
26N70W. The front is associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone
Leslie, which is centered N of area near 37N43.5W. Please, see
Special Features Section for more details on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Leslie. Large swell generated by the remnants of Leslie,
now an intense low pressure system over the north-central Atlc,
is expected to spread east of 75W by Fri night, then to north
Florida and E of the Bahamas early next week.

High pressure is build southward across the west-central Atlantic
with a 1025 mb located near 37N70W. Another ridge dominates the
remainder of the Atlantic T of the aforementioned cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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