[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 241745
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has stopped issuing advisories on
Tropical Depression Kirk, located about 1100 miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands, and continues to issue advisories on
Subtropical Storm Leslie, located about 1200 miles west of the
Azores.

A broad area of low pressure located about 450 miles
south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to become slightly more conducive for development
during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward.  By Tuesday night and Wednesday, upper-level winds
are expected to increase, limiting the chances for additional
development, while the system moves northward near the southeastern
United States coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form north of
Subtropical Storm Leslie along a cold front over the central
Atlantic by Wednesday.  Leslie and the non-tropical low are expected
to merge over the central Atlantic, where conditions appear
conducive for the low to acquire tropical or subtropical
characteristics by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave, the remnants of Kirk, is located about 1400 miles
east of the Windward Islands.  This system is producing showers and
thunderstorms along with winds to gale force over the northern
portion of the wave.  Redevelopment of this system is possible over
the next few days until it encounters highly unfavorable
upper-level winds while it approaches the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.


$$
Forecaster Pasch
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