[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...Special Features...

Tropical Depression Kirk centered near 9.4N 35.5W at 24/0300 UTC
or 730 nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving W at
22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 07N-14N between 33W-39W. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details.

Subtropical Storm Leslie centered near 33.3N 48.5W at 24/0300
UTC or 1080 nm W of the Azores moving SW at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 28N-33N between 45W-50W. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from 03N-16N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. The wave corresponds nicely with a maximum in
TPW imagery. Model analyses depict an associated 700 mb trough
along 50W. Scattered showers are located from 10N-14N between
49W-51W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 93W from 08N-21N, moving
west at 10 kt. The 700 mb trough associated with this wave is well
depicted in model guidance, and TPW imagery shows abundant
moisture in its environment. Scattered moderate convection is
south of 20N between 90W-97W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
10N24W. The ITCZ begins near 10N24W to 10N30W, then resumes west
of T.S. Kirk near 07N38W to 05N49W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave and Kirk, scattered showers are
noted within 75 nm north of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered over the south-central Gulf near
23N89W. Isolated showers prevail is E of 89W. An upper-level high
is centered over N Mexico near 26N104W. Northerly upper-level
flow is over the NW Gulf.

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and
entering the Bay of Campeche with convection. Refer to the
section above for more details. At the surface, a cold front
extends from E Texas near 29N94W to 25N94W to NE Mexico near
23N98W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. A surface
trough is over the Bay of Campeche along 93W.

Expect the front to stall and dissipate today. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and seas 3 ft or less will prevail across most of
the basin through the middle of next week. A surface trough will
develop over the Yucatan peninsula each evening, shift W over the
SW Gulf each night, then dissipate by the morning hours. Moderate
to fresh winds will accompany this trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough combined with diffluence aloft
continues to enhance scattered moderate convection over the SW
Caribbean S of 12N between 78W-84W. Plenty of moisture will
persist over the extreme southwest Caribbean, Panama and Costa
Rica. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the
central Caribbean through today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Currently, there is a tropical depression, a tropical wave, and a
subtropical storm over the Atlantic. See the sections above for
details.

A broad 1011 mb low is centered near 28N70W. A surface trough
runs from 31N68W to the low center to 27N78W. Scattered showers
are along the trough and near the low.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become slightly more conducive for development
during the next couple of days while the system moves west-
northwestward to northwestward. By Tuesday night and Wednesday,
upper-level winds are expected to increase, limiting the chances
for additional development, while the system moves northward near
the southeastern United States coast. This feature has a low
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.

To the east, a weakening stationary front is over the central
Atlantic from 31N41W to 25N46W to 24N57W. Scattered showers are
within 45 nm on either side of the front.

The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 40N24W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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