[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
143 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...Special Features...

Tropical Storm Kirk centered near 9.3N 30.2W at 23/1500 UTC or
470 nm SW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving W at 18
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.  Some
strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Weakening is
likely during the middle to latter part of the week. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N-11N between 19W-
26W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details.

Remnants Of Eleven centered near 14.5N 56.0W at 23/1500 UTC or
300 nm ENE of the Windward Islands moving W at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 13N-17N between 51W-55W. See the last NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
for more details. Additional information on this system can be
found in the high seas forecast issued by the national weather
service ...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01
KWBC.

Subtropical Storm Leslie centered near 33.0N 46.5W at 23/1500
UTC or 990 nm WSW of the Azores moving W at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 29N-34N between 45W-50W. Little overall motion
is anticipated during the next 2 days. Some slight strengthening
is possible, but Leslie is forecast to become absorbed by a larger
non-tropical low by the middle of the week. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 48W from 03N-16N, moving west at 10-15
kt. The wave corresponds nicely with a maximum in TPW imagery.
Model analyses depict an associated 700 mb trough along 46W.
Isolated moderate convection is located from 09N-15N between 43W-
50W.

A Central American tropical wave is along 90W from 08N-20N,
moving west at 10 kt. The 700 mb trough associated with this wave
is well depicted in model guidance, and TPW imagery shows
abundant moisture in its environment. Isolated moderate
convection is south of 20N between 83W-92W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
08N20W. The ITCZ begins near 08N20W to 10N26W. The ITCZ resumes
near 05N35W to 06N47W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical, widely scattered moderate convection is located S
of the monsoon from 04N-09N between 10W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered over the SE Gulf near 24N88W.
Isolated moderate convection is E of 89W. An upper-level high is
centered over N Mexico near 26N104W. Northerly upper-level flow is
over the NW Gulf.

On the surface, a cold front extends from E Texas near 29N94W to
26N96W to NE Mexico near 24N98W. A prefrontal trough extends from
SW Louisiana near 30N93W to 28N94W. Isolated moderate convection
is N of 22N and W of 93W. A surface trough is over the Bay of
Campeche along 94W. Scattered showers are S of 21N.

Expect the front to stall and dissipate tonight. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and seas 3 ft or less will prevail across
most of the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week. A
surface trough will develop over the Yucatan peninsula each
evening, shift W over the SW Gulf each night, then dissipate by
morning. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany this trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across Central America, and a portion
of the wave's convection is over the W Caribbean. Please see the
Tropical Waves section for more details.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough combined with diffluence aloft
continues to enhance scattered moderate to strong convection over
the SW Caribbean S of 13N. Plenty of moisture will persist over
the extreme southwest Caribbean, Panama and Costa Rica tonight.
Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds prevail over the central
Caribbean. These winds will diminish across most of the basin by
tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Currently, there is a tropical storm, a tropical wave, and a
subtropical storm over the Atlantic. See above.

A broad 1012 mb low is centered near 28N68W. A surface trough
runs from 31N65W to the low center to 26N73W. Isolated moderate
convection is along the trough and near the low. Unfavorable
upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit development
today, but conditions could become more conducive for some
development of this system on Monday or Tuesday while it moves
westward then west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean. By the middle of next week, strong upper-level winds are
likely to limit additional development as the system turns
northward and moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United
States. This feature has a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours.

A weakening cold front uis over the central Atlantic from 31N40W
to 23N50W to 27N60W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the front.

The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 40N22W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net