[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Tropical Depression Joyce is centered north of the area near
33.7N 27.4W at 2100 UTC or 260 nm S of the Azores, moving SE at
7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Joyce remains an
organized low level circulation under strong westerly vertical
shear, with minimal deep convection. It is expected to drift
southward and gradually weaken through Wednesday. See the latest
NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W from 03N-18N,
moving west at 15-20 kt. Model guidance indicates the wave is
associated with a 700 mb trough. It is at the leading edge of an
extensive area of dry Saharan air from 10N-25N between 15W-45W.
Scattered moderate convection is south of 12N between 38W-54W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from W Africa near 14N17W to
10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 06N28W to 08N59W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 54W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low is over the western gulf near 25N94W. A 1016
mb surface high is over the NW Gulf near 27N93W. 5-10 kt
anticyclonic winds are over the NW Gulf. 05-10 kt SE to S winds
are over the remainder of the Gulf. The remnants of tropical
cyclone Isaac, currently near Jamaica, will move west across
Yucatan Channel on Wed and across the southwest Gulf waters on
Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak low pressure area, associated with he remnants of Isaac,
is located south of Jamaica. Showers and thunderstorms are
limited, and environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for any re-development to occur. Gentle trades
are west of the remnants, while gentle to moderate trades are
over the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean. A tropical
wave along 49W is expected to reach the area Wednesday,
accompanied by fresh trades and building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Depression Joyce. Also refer to the tropical wave
section for a wave along 49W.

A broad deep layer trough extends across the central Atlantic
from a large upper-level low centered near 27N65W. A 1013 mb
surface low is near 25N66W with a trough extending southwest to
near Hispaniola at 29N59W. The system is producing scattered
showers and thunderstorms east of the trough axis between 20N-
30W and west of 50W. Well east of the trough, a 1024 mb high is
centered near 28N39W. The surface trough and low are forecast to
weaken over the next 24 to 48 hours as a ridge builds westward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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