[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-132315-

Hurricane Florence Local Statement Advisory Number 57
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL062018
1115 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC RAINFALL WITH CATASTROPHIC
FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Duplin, Greene, and Lenoir
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Jones, Mainland Dare, Mainland
      Hyde, Martin, Onslow, Outer Banks Dare, Outer Banks Hyde,
      Pamlico, Pitt, Tyrrell, and Washington

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 130 miles south of Buxton NC or about 110 miles southeast
      of Morehead City NC
    - 33.4N 75.5W
    - Storm Intensity 105 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Florence remains a dangerous category 2 hurricane. The
center of the storm is expected to make landfall in southeast North
Carolina tonight through early Friday morning. Eastern North Carolina
is expected to see significant to potentially life threatening impacts,
including extreme storm surge, catastrophic and possibly historic
flooding rains, and damaging winds. Florence is expected to slow down
as it makes landfall, prolonging these dangerous conditions into Friday
and Saturday.

On the current forecast track, hurricane force winds in excess of
74 mph will likely develop this afternoon. The strongest winds are
expected tonight into early Friday. Extreme winds in excess of 100 mph
are likely to impact the southern coastal areas. Tropical storm force
winds have already developed in coastal counties. The saturated ground
and long duration of high winds will increase the threat for downed
trees and the likelihood for widespread power outages.

The potential for historic flooding exists across portions of Eastern
North Carolina due to the prolonged period of heavy rainfall as
Florence slowly moves into the Carolinas. The current rainfall
forecast indicates widespread amounts of 1 to 2 FEET with locally
higher amounts over 3 FEET of rain possible. Highest rainfall totals
are expected for the southern half of the area. The heavy rain will
expand inland through Eastern NC through the day today and continue
through Saturday. These rainfall amounts would cause catastrophic flash
flooding during the storm, followed by significant and prolonged river
flooding lasting well into next week.

Major and potentially record river flooding is expected for rivers and
streams primarily over Duplin, Onslow, Carteret, and Craven Counties
where the heaviest rain is likely to fall. Elsewhere all other rivers
and streams are vulnerable to moderate or major flooding with this
storm. Many will reach flood stage as early as Friday, and will
continue to rise well into next week. Given the generally slow rise of
area rivers, most won't crest until mid to late next week extending
the impacts from this long duration flood event.

Extreme storm surge impacts are expected with Hurricane Florence.
Based on the current forecast, inundation of up to 9 to 13 feet above
ground will be possible near and to the north and east of the center
of the storm across the southern North Carolina coast, including the
Pamlico Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, as well as adjacent streams
and bays. Moderate to significant storm surge flooding is expected
over the northern coast with inundation of 3 to 6 feet above ground. A
small shift in the track could change what locations may see the most
significant inundation.

High surf and large breaking waves will likely result in extreme beach
erosion and ocean overwash along the North Carolina coast today into
Friday.

Isolated to several tornadoes will be possible today into Friday.

Very dangerous marine conditions are also expected, with extreme seas
of 20 to 40 feet. A high threat of rip currents and large and
dangerous breaking waves in the surf zone will produce extremely
hazardous beach conditions.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across areas adjacent to Pamlico Sound, Neuse, Bay and
Pamlico Rivers, and along the Crystal Coast. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across portions of Eastern North Carolina. Potential
impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across portions of Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across portions of Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear
to return.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 6 PM, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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