[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Florence Local Statement Advisory Number 54
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL062018
510 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM
 SURGE AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC RAINFALL WITH CATASTROPHIC FLOODING TO
 PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Duplin, Greene, and Lenoir
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Jones, Mainland Dare, Mainland
      Hyde, Martin, Onslow, Outer Banks Dare, Outer Banks Hyde,
      Pamlico, Pitt, Tyrrell, and Washington

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 350 miles south-southeast of Buxton NC or about 360 miles
      southeast of Morehead City NC
    - 30.9N 72.5W
    - Storm Intensity 120 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 16 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Florence has diminished only slightly in intensity, but is
still a dangerous category 3 hurricane. The center of the storm is
expected to make landfall in the Carolinas by late Friday. There is
still some uncertainty regarding the exact forecast track, but Eastern
North Carolina is expected to see significant to potentially life
threatening impacts, including extreme storm surge, catastrophic and
possibly historic flooding rains, and damaging winds. Florence is
expected to slow down or possibly even stall near the Southeastern
North Carolina coast, prolonging these dangerous conditions through the
weekend.

On the current forecast track, hurricane force winds in excess of
74 mph could develop by Thursday afternoon. The strongest winds are
expected Thursday night through Friday. Extreme winds in excess of
100 mph are likely around the center of the storm. Tropical storm
force winds of 40 mph and greater could develop as early as late
tonight. The saturated ground and long duration of high winds will
increase the threat for downed trees and the likelihood for widespread
power outages.

The potential for historic flooding exists across portions of Eastern
North Carolina due to the slowing down or stalling of Florence near
the area. The current rainfall forecast indicates widespread amounts
of 1 to 2 FEET with locally higher amounts over 3 FEET of rain
possible. The heavy rain will start Thursday afternoon and continue
through the weekend. These rainfall amounts would cause catastrophic
flash flooding during the storm, followed by significant and prolonged
river flooding lasting well into next week.

Major and potentially record river flooding is expected for rivers and
streams primarily over Duplin, Onslow, Carteret, and Craven Counties
where the heaviest rain is likely to fall. Elsewhere all other rivers
and streams are vulnerable to moderate or major flooding with this
storm. Many will reach flood stage as early as Friday, and will
continue to rise well into next week. Given the generally slow rise of
area rivers, most won't crest until mid to late next week extending
the impacts from this long duration flood event.

Extreme storm surge impacts are expected with Hurricane Florence.
Based on the current forecast, inundation of up to 9 to 13 feet above
ground will be possible near and to the north and east of the center
of the storm across the southern North Carolina coast, including the
Pamlico Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, as well as adjacent streams
and bays. Moderate to significant storm surge flooding is expected
over the northern coast with inundation of 3 to 6 feet above ground. A
small shift in the track could change what locations may see the most
significant inundation.

High surf and large breaking waves will likely result in extreme beach
erosion and ocean overwash along the North Carolina coast Thursday and
Friday.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible Thursday and Friday.

Very dangerous marine conditions are also expected, with extreme seas
of 20 to 40 feet. A high threat of rip currents and large and
dangerous breaking waves in the surf zone will produce extremely
hazardous beach conditions.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

 SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across areas adjacent to Pamlico Sound, Neuse, Bay and
Pamlico Rivers, and along the Crystal Coast. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across portions of Eastern North Carolina.
Potential impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across most of Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible impacts across Eastern
North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 11 PM, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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