[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Florence Local Statement Advisory Number 51
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL062018
1128 PM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**LIFE-THREATENING HURRICANE FLORENCE APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST
U.S.COAST**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Duplin, Greene, and Lenoir
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Jones, Mainland Dare, Mainland
      Hyde, Martin, Onslow, Outer Banks Dare, Outer Banks Hyde,
      Pamlico, Pitt, Tyrrell, and Washington

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 620 miles southeast of Buxton NC or about 640 miles
      southeast of Morehead City NC
    - 28.4N 68.7W
    - Storm Intensity 140 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 300 degrees at 17 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Florence remains a major category 4 hurricane and is
expected to make landfall as a major hurricane in the Carolinas by
Friday afternoon. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact
forecast track, but confidence continues to increase in Eastern North
Carolina seeing significant to potentially life threatening impacts,
including extreme storm surge, catastrophic flooding rains, and
damaging winds. Florence is expected to slow down or possibly even
stall over the area, prolonging these dangerous conditions through
next weekend.

Winds:

On the current forecast track, Hurricane force winds in excess of
74 mph could develop Thursday afternoon. The strongest winds are
expected Thursday night through Friday. Extreme winds in excess of
100 mph are likely near the center of the storm.

Tropical storm force winds of 40 mph and greater could develop as
early as Wednesday night.

The saturated ground and long duration of high winds will increase the
threat for downed trees, and the likelihood for widespread power
outages.

Flooding:

Overview-The threat for catastrophic flooding has increased across
much of Eastern North Carolina due to the slowing down or stalling of
Florence near the area. The current rainfall forecast indicates
widespread amounts of 15 to 25 inches with locally higher amounts in
excess of 30 inches possible. These rainfall totals are likely to
cause significant widespread flooding, especially in areas that have
had a history of flooding. Life threatening flash flooding could occur
Thursday through Saturday. The rain will start on Thursday and could
continue through the weekend.

Major river flooding expected across the area. Local and upstream
rainfall will cause area rivers to flood. Many will reach flood stage
as early as Friday, and will continue to rise well into next week.
Given the generally slow rise of area rivers, most won't crest until
mid to late next week extending the impacts from this long fuse flood
event. River forecasts are produced using 72 hours of rainfall.

Surge:

Extreme storm surge impacts are expected with Hurricane Florence.
Based on the current forecast, inundation of up to 9 to 13 feet above
ground will be possible near and to the east of the center of the
storm across the southern North Carolina coast, including the Pamlico
Sound, Neuse, and Pamlico Rivers, as well as adjacent streams.
Moderate to significant storm surge flooding is expected over the
northern coast with inundation of 3 to 6 feet above ground. A small
shift in the track could change what locations may see the most
significant inundation.

High surf and large breaking waves will likely result in extreme beach
erosion and ocean overwash along the North Carolina coast Thursday and
Friday. Overwash and sound side flooding will likely cause Highway
12 along the Outer Banks to become impassable.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible Thursday and Friday.

Very dangerous marine conditions are also expected, with extreme seas
of 20 to 40 feet. A high threat of rip currents and large and
dangerous breaking waves in the surf zone will produce extremely
hazardous beach conditions.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS -----------------

* SURGE: Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible
devastating impacts across most low lying areas in Eastern North
Carolina. Potential impacts in this area include: - Widespread deep
inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful
battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with many washing
away. Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris.
Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Near-shore
escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded.
Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Extreme
beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible. - Massive damage to
marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Numerous small craft broken
away from moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded.

* WIND: Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across southern portions of Eastern North Carolina, especially
along the coast. Potential impacts in this area include: - Structural
damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures.
Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by
large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks
or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with
fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from
large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many
bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Widespread power
and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having
possible catastrophic impacts across Eastern North Carolina. Potential
impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt evacuations and
rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas.
Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and
retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some
road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES: Prepare for a tornado event having possible impacts
across Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include: - The
occurrence of isolated tornadoes that can hinder the execution of
emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience
tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - The
tornado threat could come well before the center of the storm arrives.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree
tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over,
moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS: Listen to local official for recommended preparedness
actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor drainage
area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong
gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to
become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets
for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate
preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency
plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness
information see redcross.org.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across areas adjacent to Pamlico Sound, Neuse, Bay and
Pamlico Rivers, and along the Crystal Coast. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

Also, protect against life-threatening surge having possible
significant to extensive impacts across the remaining areas adjacent
to the coast and sounds of Eastern North Carolina.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across most of Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across far northeast North Carolina.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across much of Eastern North Carolina. Potential
impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling
trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to a
safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open for
those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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