[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Olivia Local Statement Advisory Number 46
National Weather Service Honolulu HI  EP172018
512 PM HST Tue Sep 11 2018

This product covers the Hawaiian islands

**CENTER OF OLIVIA APPROACHING MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Big Island Interior,
      Big Island North and East, Big Island Summits, Central Oahu,
      Haleakala Summit, Kahoolawe, Kauai Leeward, Kauai Mountains,
      Kauai Windward, Kohala, Kona, Lanai Makai, Lanai Mauka, Leeward
      Haleakala, Maui Central Valley, Maui Leeward West, Maui
      Windward West, Molokai Leeward, Molokai Windward, Niihau, Oahu
      Koolau, Oahu North Shore, Oahu South Shore, Olomana, South Big
      Island, Waianae Coast, Waianae Mountains, and Windward Haleakala

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 240 miles east of Honolulu or about 100 miles northeast
      of Hilo
    - 20.9N 154.2W
    - Storm Intensity 50 mph
    - Movement West or 260 degrees at 15 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Olivia continues to approach the state from the east.
Strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high surf will impact the islands
over the next couple of days.

Winds are already increasing over Maui County and the Big Island and
will be on the increase over Oahu tonight. Widespread tropical storm
force winds are expected to reach Maui and portions of the Big Island
overnight, and Oahu early Wednesday morning as Olivia draws closer to
the state. Kauai will see winds on the increase late tonight, with
widespread tropical storm force winds arriving Wednesday.

The mountainous terrain of the islands will produce localized areas of
highly enhanced winds well ahead of Olivia, which can cause damage
before the onset of widespread tropical storm force winds.
Additionally, hurricane force wind gusts are possible with Olivia and
with the terrain enhanced winds, well away from the tropical cyclone
center.

It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track and intensity
of Olivia. Regardless of the track that Olivia takes as it approaches
the islands, significant impacts can be expected away from the center.

Showers will continue to increase tonight with the chance for flooding
rainfall increasing rapidly overnight, and remaining a significant
threat through Thursday night. Expect rainfall totals of 5 to
10 inches, with isolated areas reaching up to 15 inches. Much of this
rainfall will be focused on windward areas of the islands, especially
from Oahu through the Big Island. However, flooding is still a
significant threat for all areas, particularly as Olivia moves over
the islands.

Swells and surf generated by Olivia will continue to build along east
facing shores tonight, reaching damaging levels tonight and Wednesday.
Surf heights along east facing shores are expected to reach up to
20 feet on Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. Along the east
facing shores of Kauai and Lanai, expect surf to reach 10 to 14 feet.
This surf is expected to result in significant beach erosion and
overwash onto vulnerable coastal roadways, particularly during high
tides.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
Oahu and Maui County. Remain well sheltered from dangerous winds having
possible significant impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Potential impacts from the main wind event are also now unfolding
across portions of the Big Island and Kauai County. Remain well sheltered
from  hazardous wind having possible limited impacts.

Elsewhere across the Hawaiian islands, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
Maui. Remain well guarded against life-threatening flood waters having
possible devastating impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, arroyos, and ditches may become raging rivers. In
      mountain areas, deadly runoff may rage down valleys while
      increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood
      control systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
the remainder of the state of Hawaii. Remain well guarded against
life-threatening flood waters having possible limited to extensive impacts.

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
east facing coastlines of Oahu, the islands of Maui County, and the Big
Island. Remain well away from locally hazardous surge having possible
limited impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across the Hawaiian islands, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a
battery-powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

During the peak of the storm be ready to move quickly. Keep your
shoes on and rain gear handy. Boots and athletic shoes offer the best
foot protection if you become unexpectedly exposed to the weather.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or
videos.

Quickly move to the safest place within your shelter if it begins to
fail, preferably an interior room on the lowest floor as long as
flooding is not a concern.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch
or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic
rise in water levels.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Honolulu HI around 1130 PM HST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

M Ballard
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