[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Florence Local Statement Advisory Number 49
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL062018
1145 AM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLORENCE APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COASTLINE**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Duplin, Greene, and Lenoir
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Jones, Mainland Dare, Mainland
      Hyde, Martin, Onslow, Outer Banks Dare, Outer Banks Hyde,
      Pamlico, Pitt, Tyrrell, and Washington

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 840 miles southeast of Buxton NC or about 870 miles
      southeast of Morehead City NC
    - 26.7N 65.3W
    - Storm Intensity 130 mph
    - Movement West-northwest or 295 degrees at 16 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Florence remains a major Category 4 hurricane and is
expected to make landfall as a major Hurricane in the Carolinas
Thursday evening or early Friday morning. There is still some
uncertainty regarding the exact forecast track, but confidence
continues to increase in Eastern North Carolina seeing significant to
potentially life threatening impacts, including extreme storm surge,
flooding rains, and damaging winds. A slight shift in the track could
change significant impacts drastically.

Winds:

On the current forecast track, Hurricane force winds in excess of
74 mph could develop Thursday afternoon. The strongest winds are
expected Thursday evening into Friday. Extreme winds in excess of
100 mph are likely near and where the storm center makes landfall.

Tropical storm force winds of 40 mph could develop as early as
Wednesday night.

The saturated ground will increase the threat for downed trees, and
the potential for widespread power outages.

Flooding:

One of the main threats with Hurricane Florence will be very heavy
rainfall leading to the risk for significant flooding across Eastern
North Carolina. The current rainfall forecast indicates widespread
amounts of 10 to 20 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 25
inches possible. These rainfall totals are likely to cause significant
widespread flooding, especially in areas that have had a history of
flooding. Flash Flooding could occur Thursday into Saturday, but river
flooding from rainfall inland could persist for several weeks after
the storm. The axis of heaviest rainfall will depend on the exact track
of the storm and may vary with future forecast updates.

Surge:

Extreme storm surge impacts are expected with Hurricane Florence.
Based on the current forecast inundation of up to 8 to 12 feet above
ground will be possible near and to the east of the eye across the
southern North Carolina coast...including the Pamlico Sound, and
rivers and streams. Moderate to significant storm surge flooding is
expected over the northern coast with inundation of 3 to 6 feet above
ground. A small shift in the track could change what locations may see
the most significant inundation.

High surf and large breaking waves will likely result in extreme beach
erosion and ocean overwash along the North Carolina coast Thursday and
Friday. Overwash and sound side flooding will likely cause Highway 12
along the Outer Banks to become impassable.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible Thursday and Friday.

Very dangerous marine conditions are also expected, with extreme seas
of 20 to 40 feet. A high threat of rip currents and large and
dangerous breaking waves in the surf zone will produce extremely
hazardous beach conditions.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across most low lying areas in Eastern North Carolina.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

Also, prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
to extensive impacts across most low lying areas in Eastern North Carolina .

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts
across southern portions of Eastern North Carolina, especially along the
coast. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for life-threatening wind having possible significant
to extensive impacts across southern portions of Eastern North Carolina.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible major
impacts across Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible impacts across Eastern
North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes that can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - The tornado threat could come well before the center of the storm
      arrives.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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