[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051925 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTION
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018

CORRECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT T.D. GORDON AND
HURRICANE FLORENCE

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression GORDON, at 05/1500 UTC, is
inland near 32.3N 90.2W. GORDON is moving NW, or 320 degrees, 12
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35
knots. The threat continues for heavy rain and flooding. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the NE
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 27N northward between 84W and
90W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and inland
rainshowers, cover the U.S.A. from the Florida Panhandle to
Tennessee and Kentucky. Future information on Gordon can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction
Center beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO
header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

The center of Hurricane FLORENCE, at 05/1500 UTC, is near 22.0N
45.7W. FLORENCE is moving NW, or 305 degrees, 11 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 110 knots with gusts to 135 knots.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 90 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant, and within 120 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from 21N to 25N between 43W and 48W.
Public Advisories for FLORENCE are issued under WMO/AWIPS
headers WTNT31 KNHC/ MIATCPAT1. Forecast Advisories for FLORENCE
are issued under WMO/AWIPS headers WTNT21 KNHC/MIATCMAT1.

A tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 20N southward. A 1008 mb
low pressure center is along the wave near 11N. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression is expected to form during the
next few days, as the system moves WNW, across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the line that
runs from the western part of the Cabo Verde Islands, to 12N30W,
and to 07N35W. The chance of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Please read the latest
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W from Cuba southward.
The wave is moving through the area of an upper level NE-to-SW
oriented cyclonic shear axis. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are in the NW corner of the Caribbean SEA.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to the 1008 mb low pressure center that
is part of the SPECIAL FEATURES section with the 27W/28W tropical
wave, to 09N34W, and 09N40W. The ITCZ is along 09N40W 08N46W and
07N52W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 04N to 12N between land and 22W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 05N to 10N between 40W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Gordon.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers
the western one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, covers the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
in the Gulf waters in the area of cyclonic wind flow. Rainshowers
that are in the NE corner of the area, from 27N northward between
84W and 90W, are associated with T.D. GORDON.

A weak surface ridge will build from the Carolinas to the coast
of Texas in the wake of Gordon. Expect gentle to moderate
easterly winds and modest seas into early next week. The
exception will be fresh winds pulsing off the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula, mainly during the late evening hours, due to
a daily trough that sets up in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the
west of the line that runs from Puerto Rico to La Peninsula de la
Guajira of northern Colombia. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

The easternmost part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is
along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond western sections of
Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 12N southward between 75W and 81W. Rainshowers are possible
in Costa Rica.

A relatively weak surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean
will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds in most of the region
through late Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Hurricane Florence. A second area of interest pertains to a
new area of broad low pressure, in the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean, with a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during
the next 48 hours.

An upper level trough extends from Bermuda to the Windward
Passage, toward Nicaragua and Costa Rica, into the SW corner of
the Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from the Greater Antilles northward from 60W
westward. A surface trough is along 31N61W 25N65W, to the eastern
part of the Dominican Republic. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are in the area of cyclonic wind
flow.

A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate easterly
winds across the area through Sunday night. Easterly swell from
Hurricane Florence will move into the open waters east of the
Bahamas from late tonight through Sunday. Hurricane Florence near
22.0N 45.7W 957 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt. Florence will move to 22.7N
47.2W this evening, 23.8N 49.0W Thu morning, 24.7N 50.6W Thu
evening, 25.1N 52.1W Fri morning, and 25.7N 54.7W Sat morning.
Florence will change little in intensity as it moves near 27.0N
57.0W early Sun, and continue to near 28.5N 59.0W Mon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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