[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 PM EDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm GORDON at 04/1500 UTC is near 28.5N
86.8W, or about 165 nm/305 km to the ESE of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. GORDON is moving WNW, or 305 degrees, 13
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 60 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant, and within 120 nm in the NE quadrant.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere
from 26N to 31N between 83W and 89W, including inland in Florida
to the east of GORDON, and inland in the Florida Big Bend and in
the Florida Panhandle. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES about Tropical Storm
GORDON are issued under the WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under the
AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES about Tropical
Storm GORDON are issued under the WMO header WTNT22 KNHC, and
under the AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

The center of Hurricane FLORENCE at 04/1500 UTC is near 19.7N
42.5W. FLORENCE is moving WNW, or 295 degrees, 10 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within a 90 nm
radius of the center in the N semicircle, and within 60 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the center in the N
semicircle and in the SE quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are in the remainder of the area from 17N to
26N between 37W and 44W. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES about Tropical
Storm FLORENCE are issued under the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and
under the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES about
Tropical Storm FLORENCE are issued under the WMO header WTNT21
KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W from 21N
southward. A 1007 mb low pressure is along the tropical wave near
10N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 12N to 16N between 21W and 25W, and from 07N to 10N between
25W and 30W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 02N
to 17N between Africa and 30W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/76W, from 21N in SE
Cuba, to northern Colombia. The wave is moving through an area of
upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an elongated NE-to-SW
oriented trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
are within 60 nm on either side of the line from 15N80W, through
the Jamaica Channel, through the Windward Channel, to the SE
Bahamas.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 94W/95W from 21N southward, across the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Rainshowers are possible within
150 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W, to a 1007 mb low pressure center, that is along the
22W/23W tropical wave, near 10N. The monsoon trough continues to
09N26W and 11N32W. The ITCZ is along 10N45W, to 06N59W in Guyana.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are along
the coast from 05N to 10N between land and 17W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N to 10N between 40W and
60W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 03N south between 33W
and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Gordon.

An upper level trough is to the west of Gordon, from SE Louisiana
to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is inland in Mexico, from 25N
southward between 96W and 106W.

Gordon is forecast to move NW during the next 24 hours. It is
forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tonight, and then make
landfall later tonight. The wind speeds and the sea heights will
diminish across the eastern and north central Gulf of Mexico in
the wake of Gordon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean, just to
the north of Hispaniola, along a NE-to-SW line, toward Jamaica and
eastern Honduras/NE Nicaragua. Isolated moderate rainshowers
cover the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from 70W westward.

The easternmost part of the monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from
74W in Colombia beyond western Panama and southern Costa Rica.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
11N southward from 75W westward.

The current 74W/76W tropical wave, that extends from western Cuba
to Colombia, will pass through the western Caribbean Sea by late
Wednesday. A relatively weak surface ridge, that is to the north
of the region, will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds mostly
everywhere, through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Hurricane Florence.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 46W westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 30N northward between 55W and 61W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the area of upper
level cyclonic wind flow.

A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate easterly
winds across the area through Saturday. Easterly swell from
Hurricane Florence will move into the open waters east of the
Bahamas starting late Wednesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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