[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
136 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Florence centered near 16.0N 30.2W at 02/0300 UTC
or 340 nm WNW of The Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW
at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N-18N between 28W-32W. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 58W from 08N-
21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. This position was based on satellite
imagery and model guidance. Scattered showers are noted within
180 nm of the wave's axis between 18N-20N.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from E
Cuba near 20N78W to Panama near 09N79W, moving west at 10-15 kt.
This wave location is based on satellite imagery, atmospheric
soundings, and model guidance. This wave is in an area where an
upper-level low prevails near 17N72W enhancing convection.
Scattered moderate convection is south of central Cuba from 16N-
21N between 78W-85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 18N16W to
16N24W, then resumes west of T.S. Florence near 12N31W and
continues to 11N43W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 10N55W. See
the Special Features section for convection related to Florence.
In addition, scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm
south of the monsoon trough between 30W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered near 27N92W. This feature is
enhancing scattered showers between 89W-94W. Another upper-level
low is centered north of the Bahamas in the west Atlantic. This
low, combined with the one discussed previously, is keeping the
area over the Florida Peninsula and far east Gulf under a
diffluent flow aloft. With this, scattered moderate convection
prevails east of 85W.

A surface ridge extends west across the basin from a high centered
over the central Atlantic. Expect for the surface ridge to
dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend. A surface trough
will move across South Florida by Monday enhancing convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is centered south of Hispaniola near 17N72W
enhancing convection over the island and adjacent waters. A
tropical wave is also over the west-central Caribbean. See the
section above for details. Scattered moderate convection is noted
over the Gulf of Honduras from 15N-17N between 85W-90W. To the
south, the eastern part of the EPAC's monsoon trough is along 10N
from Costa Rica to Colombia. Scattered showers prevail along the
trough.

Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south
central Caribbean during the next several nights. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Another tropical wave will
move into eastern Caribbean today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for information about T.S Florence,
and the Atlantic tropical wave. An upper-level low is centered
north of the Bahamas near 28N79W. This feature is enhancing
convection west of 76W. In addition, a surface trough extends from
24N73W to 20N73W, moving WNW with convection. A surface trough is
over the central Atlantic from 30N58W to 27N62W with scattered
moderate convection within 90 nm on either side of the trough.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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