[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011207
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 AM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Florence centered near 14.5N 26.7W at 01/0900 UTC
or 130 nm W of The Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at
12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N-17N between
24W-30W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 53W from 02N-
14N, moving west at 15-20 kt. This position was based on
satellite imagery and model guidance. Isolated showers are noted
within 180 nm of the wave's axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from the
Windward Passage near 20N74W to N Colombia near 08N76W, moving
west at 10 kt. This wave location is based on satellite imagery,
low-level TPW imagery, and model guidance. This wave is in an
area where an upper-level low prevails near 17N72W enhancing
convection. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
S of W Cuba from 18N-22N between 79W-83W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 17N-21N between 69W-78W to include Hispaniola
and E Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 15N17W to 15N24W,
then resumes W of T.S. Florence near 12N31W, and continues to
09N47W. See the Special Feature section for convection. In
addition, widely scattered moderate convection is noted S of the
monsoon trough from 05N-11N between 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered over S Louisiana near 30N92W, and
extends a trough across the north central Gulf. At the surface, a
trough extends from 29N90W to 27N96W. At this time, widely scattered
moderate convection is from 24N-30N between 86W-95W. To the east,
another upper-level low is developing near 27N87W. This feature
is also enhancing convection across the basin east of 86W. A
surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N91W to 18N92W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough.

A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 36N67W. A
surface ridge extend W from the high to E Texas along 30N. This
ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into the weekend and support
gentle to moderate SE winds. A surface trough will develop each
evening in the Yucatan Peninsula. It will move W and offshore into
the SW Gulf of Mexico during the overnight hours. A surge of
moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this trough each
night.

Furthermore, an upper-level low will advect from the N Bahamas to
S Florida this weekend. Expect nocturnal thunderstorms over this
area through this period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is centered south of Hispaniola near 17N72W
enhancing convection over the island and adjacent waters. A
tropical wave is also over the central Caribbean. See above.
Scattered moderate convection is over the Gulf of Honduras from
15N-17N between 85W-90W. To the south, the eastern part of the
EPAC's monsoon trough is along 10N from Costa Rica to Colombia.
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted S of 10N.

Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south
central Caribbean during the next several nights. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. The tropical wave
currently over Hispaniola, will move through the western Caribbean
by late Sunday into early Monday with active weather. A second
tropical wave will move into eastern Caribbean Sea by Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for information about the new T.S
Florence, and the tropical wave.

An upper level low is centered north of the Bahamas near 29N78W.
This feature is enhancing convection. In addition, a surface
trough has broken away from the Caribbean's tropical wave and
extends from 25N72W to 21N74W. Scattered moderate convection is
over the W Atlantic N of 21N and W of 71W, due to both features.
Both features are also moving towards S Florida and the Gulf of
Mexico.

A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 36N67W. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N59W to 29N61W
with no significant convection. A 1024 mb high is over the E
Atlantic near 34N39W. With this, surface ridging prevails across
most of the Atlantic waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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