[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar centered near 39.3N 49.6W at 31/2100
UTC or 470 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NNE at 30 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate
convection extends in the northern semicircle out to 210 nm from
the center. A faster motion toward the northeast or north-
northeast over the north Atlantic Ocean is expected during the
next couple of days. Oscar will remain a powerful post-tropical
cyclone over the north-central and northeastern Atlantic Ocean
into the weekend. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.

...Strong Gulf of Mexico Cold Front...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf of
Mexico by early Thursday and continue moving southeast through the
basin. A pre-frontal squall line with strong thunderstorms is
likely within 180 nm ahead of the front over the northern Gulf,
mainly north of 27N. The squall line should enter the NW Gulf from
the Texas coast by late tonight and travel quickly eastward
through the northern Gulf into Thursday evening. Brief gale force
winds are possible in the squalls, with seas ranging between 6-9
ft. Refer to the Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
OFFNT4/FZNT4 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 20W from 02N-12N. This
wave is noted in model guidance at 700 mb and TPW imagery show
high moisture content associated with this wave. Scattered
moderate convection extends south of 12N and east of 20W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 49W from 01N to 12N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Model guidance shows a 700 mb trough to
the east of the wave. TPW imagery depicts moderate to high
moisture content near and east of the wave axis. Scattered
moderate convection extends 90 nm on either side of the wave from
05N to 08N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 12N16W to 05N26W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N26W to 07N47W, then resumes near 07N52W to
06N57W. Aside from the convection related to the two tropical
waves, scattered showers are within 150 nm on either side of the
ITCZ between 26W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure centered over the northwest Atlantic
extends across most of the basin. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are observed over the northwest Gulf of Mexico north
of 28N and west of 92W, extending along the Texas and western
Louisiana coast. This activity will increase into late this
evening as a squall line develops ahead of the cold front
mentioned above in the Special Features section.

Winds and seas will begin to increase across the Gulf tonight as
return flow sets up across the western half of the Gulf ahead of
a strong cold front expected to move off the Texas coast by early
Thu with strong S to SW wind flow ahead of it, and gale-force
wind gusts. The front will reach from the mouth of the Mississippi
River to near Veracruz, Mexico Thu evening, from near Tampa Bay
to the central Yucatan Peninsula Fri evening, then stall across
the Straits of Florida to Cancun, Mexico Sat morning before
drifting NW through Sun. For more information in regards to this
feature, see the Special Features section above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the west Atlantic to north-central
Cuba. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of Jamaica,
Hispaniola and along the Windward Passage in the vicinity of a
surface trough that extends to the north of Hispaniola. In the
far southwest Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is south
of 11N near NW Colombia and the coast of Panama due to the monsoon
trough proximity. Strengthening high pressure over the western
Atlantic through Thu afternoon will act to freshen the tradewinds
across the central Caribbean. The high will then continue to shift
ENE through the weekend to produce fresh to strong tradewinds
across the Caribbean east of 80W, especially the south-central
Caribbean. These winds will be strongest at night close to the
coast of Colombia. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will move SE to the
Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean Sat morning and stall, then
drift NW and back into the Gulf late Sat and Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area near 31N51W extends to 24N75W. A
surface trough extends from 29N48W to 21N70W. Scattered showers
are observed along and within 105 nm on either side of the trough.
Large north swell will affect the waters north of 28N east of 25W
through early Thursday.

The cold front will continue moving east while weakening. Strong
high pressure to the N will shift eastward along 33N. Moderate
swell associated with exiting Oscar over the central Atlc will
affect waters E of the Bahamas through Thu. Another cold front
will move offshore of N Florida early Sat with strong southerly
flow ahead of it Fri. The front is expected to weaken and stall
from near 31N73W to the Florida Keys Sat evening before shifting
NW Sat night through Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

AH/ERA
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