[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 AM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Oscar is centered near 34.1N 53.6W at 31/0900 UTC or
575 nm ENE of Bermuda moving NE at 19 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate convection prevails north
of 34N between 52W-57W. Oscar is forecast to move towards the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed through Friday.
Oscar is expected to become an extratropical low over the north-
central Atlantic Ocean by tonight. Although gradual weakening is
expected during the next several days, Oscar is expected to remain
a powerful post-tropical cyclone over the north-central and
northeastern Atlantic Ocean into the weekend. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
for more details.

...Strong Gulf of Mexico Cold Front...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf of
Mexico by early Thursday and continue moving southeast through the
basin. A pre-frontal squall line with strong thunderstorms is
likely within 180 nm ahead of the front over the northern Gulf,
mainly north of 27N. The squall line should enter the NW Gulf from
the Texas coast by late tonight into early Thursday. Strong to
near-gale winds are expected near this activity, with seas
ranging between 6-9 ft. Refer to the Offshore Waters Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers OFFNT4/FZNT4 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 46W from 01N to 12N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance at
700 mb and TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content
near and east of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection
extends 180 nm near and east of the axis from 06N- 11N extending
eastward to 40W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 59W from 06N-15N. The wave
is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
related to this wave at this time. The tropical wave is expected
to weaken during the next 18 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 12N16W to 08N33W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N33W to 06N43W. Aside from the convection related
to the tropical wave along 42W, scattered moderate convection is
within 105 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W-27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin from a 1023 mb high
centered over the Carolinas. Winds and seas will begin to increase
across the Gulf tonight as return flow sets up across the west
half of the Gulf ahead of a strong cold front expected to move off
the Texas coast by early Thursday. A strong cold front is expected
to move off the Texas coast early Thu with strong S to SW wind
flow ahead of it, and gale-force wind gusts. The front will reach
from the mouth of the Mississippi River to near Veracruz, Mexico
Thu evening, from near Tampa Bay to the central Yucatan Peninsula
Fri evening, then stall across the Straits of Florida to Cancun,
Mexico Sat morning before drifting NW through Sun. Squalls and
strong thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front tonight
through Thu. For more information in regards to this feature, see
the Special Features section above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the west Atlantic to the windward
passage. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of Jamaica,
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. In the far southwest Caribbean,
scattered showers and isolated strong convection are south of 10N
near NW Colombia and the coast of Panama due to the monsoon
trough proximity.

Moderate trades will persist across the Caribbean, except for
fresh to strong trades in the south-central sections. Moderate NE
swell from Oscar will continue across the tropical Atlc waters
and through the NE Caribbean passages this morning then quickly
fade this afternoon. High pressure centered along the SE U.S.
coast will shift E and across Bermuda through Thu afternoon and
act to freshen the trade winds across the central Caribbean. The
high will then continue to shift ENE and across the central Atlc
through the weekend to produce fresh to strong trade winds across
the tropical Atlc and Caribbean east of 80W. A Gulf of Mexico
cold front will move SE to the Yucatan Channel and far NW
Caribbean Sat morning and stall, then drift NW and back into the
Gulf late Sat and Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area near 31N62W to 24N80W. To the east,
another cold front extends from 28N60W to 23N69W, then becomes
stationary to 19N76W. These fronts are located southwest of
Hurricane Oscar. A surface trough extends from 27N53W to 21N65W.
Scattered showers are observed from the north coast of Hispaniola
to 23N and between 65W-72W. This activity is associated with the
surface trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 24N31N
between 46W and 55W. Elsewhere near and within 120 nm SE of the
trough axis, scattered showers are present.

Over the northeast Atlantic, a cold front enters the region from
27N14W to 28N22W. No convection is noted with this frontal
boundary. Large north swell will affect the waters north of 28N
east of 25W through early Thursday.

Moderate swell associated with the exiting Hurricane Oscar
over the central Atlc will affect waters E of the Bahamas through
Thu. A cold front will move offshore of northern Florida early
Sat with strong southerly flow ahead of it Fri. The front is
expected to weaken and stall from near 31N73W to the Florida Keys
Sat evening before shifting NW Sat night through Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres/ABH
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