[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Oscar is centered near 31.3N 56.6W at 30/2100 UTC, or
420 nm E of Bermuda, moving NNE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt
with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
within 240 nm in the northern semicircle and within 60 nm in the
southern semicircle. In the southeast quadrant, scattered moderate
convection in bands extends outward to 390 nm from the center.
Oscar is forecast to move towards the north- northeast with an
increase in forward speed through Friday. Gradual weakening is
forecast during the next several days, but Oscar is expected to
become a powerful extratropical low over the north-central
Atlantic Ocean by late Wednesday. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
for more details.

...Strong Gulf of Mexico Cold Front...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf of
Mexico by early Thu and move eastward to the northeast Gulf of
Mexico by Thursday night. A pre-frontal squall line with strong
thunderstorms is likely within 180 nm ahead of the front over the
northern Gulf, mainly north of 27N. The squall line should enter
the NW Gulf from the Texas coast by Wednesday night. Strong to
near-gale winds are expected near this activity, with seas ranging
between 6-9 ft.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 42W from 01N to 12N,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends 180 nm
on either side of the axis from 02N to 11N.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 56W from 06N-15N. The
wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
related to this wave at this time. The tropical wave is expected
to weaken during the next 24 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 11N16W to 08N27W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N27W to 07N39W, then resumes west of a tropical
wave near 05N45W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection related to
the tropical wave along 42W, scattered moderate convection is
within 105 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 19W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin from a 1025 mb high
centered over the Carolinas. Winds and seas will begin to increase
across the Gulf tonight as return flow sets up across the west
half of the Gulf ahead of a strong cold front expected to move off
the Texas coast early Thu. The front will reach from western
Florida Panhandle to just south of Veracruz, Mexico Fri morning,
and from south Florida to Yucatan Peninsula Sat morning. A squall
line with brief gale- force winds is expected to develop just
ahead of the cold front N of 27N. For more information in regards
to this cold front, see the Special Features section above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from the west Atlantic to
northeastern Cuba. Scattered showers are noted north of Jamaica
between 71W-78W. Further south, scattered moderate convection are
south of 13N in the SW Caribbean, and include the coast of NW
Colombia and Panama due to the monsoon trough.

Moderate trades will persist across the Caribbean, except for
fresh to strong trades in the south-central sections. Moderate NE
swell from Oscar will continue across the tropical Atlc waters and
through the NE Caribbean passages through Wed morning. A
reinforcing Atlantic cold front will stall from W central Cuba to
N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Wed morning then lift N and
dissipate through Thu. High pres north of this front will induce
freshening trades across the Caribbean and tropical Atlc waters
late Wed through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area near 31N67W to 26N80W. To the east,
a cold front extends from 31N62W to 25N68W then becomes stationary
to 21N74W. These fronts are located west of Hurricane Oscar.
Refer to the section above for more information. Scattered showers
are observed extending from the north coast of Hispaniola to the
Turks and Caicos Islands between 70W and the eastern tip Cuba.

An upper level low centered near 28N46W is producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms from 25N to 30N between 40W to
45W. Over the northeast Atlantic, a cold front enters the region
from 31N07W to 28N14W to 31N23W. Scattered showers are located
within 180 nm of the front to the east of 16W. North of 29N and
east of 25W, expect winds 20 to 30 kt and seas 8-12 feet, due to a
north swell, through early Thursday.

A reinforcing cold front moving into the waters off NE Florida
tonight will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida
this afternoon, from 26N65W to W central Cuba Wed morning, then
stall and weaken from 24N65W to NW Cuba late Wed before
dissipating late in the week. Swell associated with Hurricane
Oscar over the central Atlantic will affect all waters but NW
portions through Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

AH/ERA
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