[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Oscar is centered near 28.6N 58.2W at 0900 UTC, moving
N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is within 210 nm in the northern semicircle
and 90 nm in the southern semicircle. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate convection in bands are within 360 nm in the southeast
quadrant. Oscar is forecast to accelerate north-northeastward
later today ahead of a large mid-latitude trough, then move
rapidly across the northern central Atlantic. PUBLIC ADVISORIES
for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and the
AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES for OSCAR are
available via the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and the AWIPS header
MIATCMAT1.

A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf of
Mexico by early Thu and move eastward across the Gulf into early
Fri. A squall line with strong thunderstorms is likely within 120
nm ahead of the front over the northern Gulf, mainly north of 27N.
Winds associated with the squall line could briefly reach gale
force. The squall line should enter the NW Gulf from the Texas
coast Wednesday night or early Thursday.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 40W from 01N to 12N, moving west at 15 to
20 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends 120 nm on either side
of the axis from 04N to 11N.

A tropical wave is along 57W from 15N to western Suriname, moving
west at 15 kt. Isolated showers are behind the wave axis between
09N to 12N between 50W to the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed over the continent of Africa east
of 16W. The ITCZ extends from 10N16W to 06N38W, then resumes from
06N41W to French Guiana. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 210 nm south of the ITCZ and 180 nm north of
the ITCZ between the coast of Africa and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tail end of a cold front extends over Central Florida into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico from Tampa Bay to 28N85W. There is no
significant convection associated with this frontal passage.

Into the Bay of Campeche, isolated showers are noted south of 22N
and west of 91W with mostly cloudy conditions. These showers are
occurring due to enhancement in low level moisture in the Bay of
Campeche.

Winds and seas will increase across the Gulf on Wed as a cold
front moves off the Texas coast Wed night or early Thu. The
front will reach from western Florida Panhandle to just south of
Veracruz, Mexico Fri morning, and from south Florida to Yucatan
Peninsula Sat morning. For more information in regards to this
cold front, see the Special Features section above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from Cuba to 20N83W over the
NW Caribbean Sea. Anticyclonic upper level flow covers most of the
Caribbean basin. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen from
the north coast of Honduras to 20N between 81W and the coast of
Belize. Further south, clusters of scattered moderate convection
are south of 13N in the SW Caribbean, and include the coast of NW
Colombia and Panama. Isolated trade wind showers are across the
remainder of the Caribbean.

A stationary front from E central Cuba to central Yucatan Peninsula
along 19N will drift SE today and gradually dissipate tonight.
Moderate trades will persist across the Caribbean, except for
fresh to strong trades in the south-central sections. Moderate NE
swell from Oscar will continue across the tropical Atlc waters and
through the NE Caribbean passages through Wed morning. A reinforcing
Atlc cold front will stall from W central Cuba to N coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula Wed morning then lift N and dissipate through
Thu. High pres north of this front will induce freshening trades
across the Caribbean and tropical Atlc waters late Wed through
Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 30N66W to the southeast
Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of
the front from the southeast Bahamas to 26N68W. A cold front
enters the area 32N70W and extends to Vero Beach Florida. Low to
mid level cloud cover are observed with the frontal boundary east
of 75W.

An upper level low centered near 29N47W is producing scattered
showers from 24N to 30N between 40W to 47W. Broad high pressure
covers the northeast Atlantic north of 23N and east of 39W.

A reinforcing cold front moving into the waters off NE Florida
tonight will reach from near Bermuda to Straits of Florida this
afternoon, from 26N65W to W central Cuba Wed morning, then stall
and weaken from 24N65W to NW Cuba late Wed before dissipating late
in the week. Swell associated with Hurricane Oscar over the
central Atlc will affect all waters but NW portions through Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMT/ABH
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