[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT Mon Oct 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Oscar at 29/1500 UTC is near 25.8N 58.4W.
OSCAR is moving WNW, or 285 degrees, 6 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 981 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 75 knots with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous strong
are within 50 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to strong
convection in bands are noted within 200 nm of the center in the
NE and SE quadrants. Similar convection is seen within 60 nm of
the center in the W semicircle. Oscar is forecast to turn toward
the northwest at a slower forward speed later today, followed by a
motion toward the north tonight. On Tue, Oscar is forecast to
begin moving north-northeast with an increase in forward speed
through Wed. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the
WMO header WTNT31 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header
WTNT21 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 12N
to 01N, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 60 nm on either side of the axis from
06N to 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W S of 14N.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm west of the wave axis from 7N
to 10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 05N34W.
It resumes west of the east Atlantic tropical wave from 05N36W to
05N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within
300 nm north of the ITCZ between 28W and 32W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 29W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico
near 27N892W. Overcast multilayered clouds are over the Bay of
Campeche S of 24N between 90W-97W. Mostly fair weather is over
the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels mostly zonal flow
is noted.

High pressure will gradually slide from the north central Gulf of
Mexico into the SE U.S. and maintain benign marine weather through
Tuesday. Winds and seas will increase across the Gulf through
mid-week as the next cold front moves off the Texas coast late
Wed. The front will reach from near Panama City Florida to Tuxpan
Mexico by Thu night, and from Tampa Florida to NW Yucatan by Fri
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 22N77W to the
Yucatan Channel near 20N87W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 18N92W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean 19N to near
the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula between 86W-87W. Further South,
a cluster of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
over the SW Caribbean S of 15N to include Nicaragua, Costa Rica,
Panama, and near the coast of NW Colombia. Elsewhere, trade winds
with passing isolated showers are across the remainder of the
Caribbean.

The stationary front will weaken through early this evening.
Moderate to locally fresh NE trades will persist over the
western Caribbean through Tue. Expect a return to fresh to strong
trades from the tropical N Atlc to the central Caribbean waters
through late week as the high pressure builds into the western
Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 32N66W to 24N70W, to east central
Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120
nm SE of the front and 90 nm NW of the front from 22N to 25N.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm
either side of the front from 25N to 28N.

A broad upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 24N and W
of 68W supporting the frontal system. An upper level low is
centered over the central Atlantic near 23N51W. Upper level
diffluence east of the low is producing scattered moderate
convection from 18N-23N between 45W-51W.

The front over the W Atlantic will stall from near Bermuda to the
southern Bahamas Mon. A secondary cold front will move into the
waters off northeast Florida to this afternoon, reach from near
Bermuda to South Florida Tue, then stall and weaken from 22N65W to
the Windward Passage by Wed before dissipating late in the week.
Swell in excess of 8 ft associated with Hurricane Oscar well east
of the area will impact the area generally east of 70W and north
of 22N early through Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MTorres
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