[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Thu Oct 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough is along 24N46W, to a 1009 mb low pressure
center that is near 21N48W, to 17N56W. The broad area of surface
low pressure and cyclonic wind flow is becoming better defined,
gradually. The surrounding precipation pattern is showing signs of
organization. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong rainshowers are within 380 nm of the 1009 mb low pressure
center in the NE quadrant. The expected movement of the low
pressure center is northward during the next few days, into an
area where the environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for more development. It is likely that a tropical storm
or a subtropical storm may form by early this weekend. The system
is forecast to turn westward well to the north or northeast of
the Lesser Antilles through early next week. The chance of
formation into a tropical cyclonie during the next 48 hours is
high. Please refer to the TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK,
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W/42W from 12N southward.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N southward between 40W
and 46W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea near 10N14W, to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W,
to 05N22W and 07N39W, and from 06N44W to 06N54W near the NW coast
of French Guiana. Disorganized widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are within 180 nm on either side of
the line that runs from 03N at the Prime Meridian, to 03N06W
03N19W, 04N25W 05N31W 07N41W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 13N southward between 40W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from Marco Island Florida
to 27N89W. A warm front extends from that point to a 1010 mb low
just off the coast of Texas near 28N96W. A stationary front
extends southward from the low to 23N96W. National Weather Service
Doppler Radar indicates scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are along the Texas and western Louisiana coasts
from Houston to Lake Charles and extending inland. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms extend offshore of Texas and
Louisiana north of 28N.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is over the southern
Gulf of Mexico near 19N92W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the area that is from 22N southward between 89W and 96W. GOES-16
water vapor channels indicate relatively dry air over the
southwest Gulf, and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are
present.

The current 1011 mb low pressure system, that is centered along
the Texas coast near Galveston, will drift NE into Louisiana this
morning, then move E-NE across the Gulf coast states through
Friday. It will drag a cold front across the Gulf. The front will
be nearly stationary from central Cuba to the SW Gulf on Saturday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough over the far southwest Caribbean extends along
10N west of 75W from the N coast of Colombia to Costa Rica and
into the East Pacific. The monsoon trough combined with an area
of weak upper-level diffluence in the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from
08N-13N between 75W-84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection has been increasing during the last few hours over N
Colombia and NW Venezuela from 07N-11N between 70W-78W. Aside from
the southwest Caribbean, the remainder of the Caribbean is free
of significant convection at this time.

Some enhanced rainfall is possible through the remainder of the
work week over the southwest Caribbean and the southern half of
Central America from Nicaragua southward due to an active monsoon
trough in the region.

Gentle to moderate trades will prevail across the
Caribbean Sea through Sat. A cold front crossing the Gulf of
Mexico will become stationary across Yucatan Channel Sat night
and Sun. Fresh trade winds are expected over the south-central
Caribbean early next week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area at 32N70W and extends SW to
29N79W to the east coast of central Florida. At 03Z, the front
was changed to a stationary front west of 76W. A N-S surface
trough is also analyzed from 28N79W southward through the NW
Bahamas to 24N77W. A 1010 mb low is located near 29N61W with a
cold front extending SW from there to the central Bahamas. This
front has weakened and will likely be dropped and changed to a
trough for the upcoming 06Z map. Scattered to numerous showers are
north of 24N between 54W-64W. Isolated showers with abundant
cloud clover are from 22N-26N between 64W-74W. Scattered to broken
low clouds are along the front east of northern Florida.

A 1008 mb low near 34N25W extends scattered moderate convection
north of 29N between 18W-25W.

A weakening stationary front over NW waters will
transition to a warm front later today ahead of a developing low
pressure system. SE winds will increase E of Florida tonight and
Fri as the low moves into Georgia. A trailing cold front from the
low will reach from Bermuda into the NW Bahamas Sat, then stall
and weaken from 30N70W to central Cuba on Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
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