[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210521
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 AM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 57W from 05N-
18N, moving west around 15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery
shows moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment.
Scattered showers are present from 10N-13N between 55W-60W. The
wave could help to enhance showers and thunderstorms over the
southern Windward Islands and southeast Caribbean through early
next week.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 08N-18N,
moving west around 10 kt. The wave corresponds with a 700 mb
trough, as indicated by model analyses. Scattered showers are
noted south of 10N and west of 80W, extending to the coasts of
Panama and Costa Rica, where the wave meets the monsoon trough.
Upper-level divergence over the southwestern Caribbean is also
playing a significant role in enhancing this convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 13N17W to
11N20W. The ITCZ extends from 11N20W to 06N50W. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is noted from 04N-13N between 20W-
41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is entering the northern Gulf waters, extending from
30N86W to 29N91W, then becomes stationary from that point to a
1015 mb low near 27N96W. A surface trough extends southward from
the low to 19N94W. To the east, another surface trough is
analyzed from 29N91W to 26N93W. A 1017 mb high is centered near
28N86W, leading to quiet weather east of 90W.

The surface trough will persist over the SW Gulf through early
next week. The cold front will continue moving across the
northern Gulf waters overnight. It is expected to become
stationary as it reaches from S Florida to near 25N97W by Sun
evening. The surface low will lift northeastward through Mon
night. High pressure will build across the waters north of the
front and to the west of the low.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 09N from
Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 76W. Convection associated
with a tropical wave along 83W interacting with the monsoon
trough is described above in the tropical waves section. Farther
east, Total Precipitable Water imagery shows high moisture content
over northeastern Venezuela and the extreme southeastern
Caribbean. Weak upper-level diffluence is noted along the northern
coast of Venezuela. Scattered showers are occurring along the
northern coast of Venezuela extending to 13N, including Trinidad
and the southern Windward Islands. The remainder of the Caribbean
is experiencing relatively quiet weather.

Expect enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity to persist over
the southeast Caribbean, southern Windward Islands, Trinidad and
northern Venezuela into the middle of next week. Fresh to strong
winds are expected to pulse over the Windward Passage, south of
Hispaniola, and near the coast of Colombia through the next few
days. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through Tue
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N51W to 26N62W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 28N50W to 25N54W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails with these features mainly north of 23N
between 47W-55W. To the south, another surface trough is located
from 15N40W to 12N43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
10N-14N between 39W-43W.

The aforementioned stationary front will dissipate by this
evening west of 65W. A strong cold front will move off NE Florida
tonight, reaching from near 31N70W to 27N75W to near West Palm
Beach by Sun afternoon, from near 31N64W to 26N72W to Miami late
Sun night, and from 26N65W to the NW Bahamas and the Florida Keys
by Mon evening, then becomes stationary. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are expected behind this front through late Mon
before gradually subsiding by mid-week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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