[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W from 03N to 14N moving
west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N
between 45W-52W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W from 09N-19N moving west
at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 12N between
77W-80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea from 11N15W to
10N18W. The ITCZ extends from 10N18W to 06N23W to 04N41W. The
ITCZ resumes west of the tropical wave along 47W at 09N49W and
extends to 09N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
and within 90 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between
20W-32W and between 49W-55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends westward from Clearwater Florida near
28N83W to 28N96.5W. The stationary front continues eastward along
28N and east of 83W. To the west, a dissipating stationary front is
from 28N97W to 24N95W. A trough extends from 24N95W to 19N94W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the western Gulf of Mexico
west of 96W.

The weakening stationary front across the northwest Gulf will
dissipate through this evening. A frontal trough will persist west
of 94W through early Sun. Winds and seas will diminish in the
western Gulf as the front weakens. A cold front will enter the
Gulf waters by Sat, extend from central Florida to southern Texas
Sun, stall and weaken from S Florida to the Texas/Mexico border
Sun night and Mon, then lift northward as a warm front early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of upper-level diffluence near the north coast of
Venezuela has been responsible for enhanced convection over the
ABC Islands, Trinidad and Tobago, southeast Caribbean, southern
Windward Islands and northern Venezuela during the past 24 hours.
Currently, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
over the NE coast of Venezuela and over Trinidad from 09N-12N
between 60W-64W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen near
and over portions of the ABC Islands from 10N-13N between 65W-70W.
Scattered thunderstorms are also occurring inland over western
Venezuela.

Upper-level troughing is over the NW Caribbean near the north
coast of Honduras and west of 85W while upper-level ridging is
over the southwest Caribbean from Jamaica and NE Honduras
southward. In between, there is an area of upper-level diffluence,
helping to enhance scattered showers and thunderstorms from 15N-
22N between 81W-88W. This activity is associated with a large
area of enhanced moisture over the western Caribbean Sea and will
be spreading west over the Yucatan Peninsula and northern portions
of Central American over the next 12 to 24 hours.

The east Pacific Monsoon Trough extends over the SW Caribbean
along 10N from Costa Rica to 78W. Satellite imagery shows
scattered moderate convection from the north coast of Panama to
11N between 77W-82W.

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across most of the region
through Tue night. Occasionally strong winds are expected near the
Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and south of E Cuba
through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N49W to 26N66W, then becomes
stationary to 28N80W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along
the cold front. A surface trough is from 29N49W to 21N55W.
Scattered showers are along the northern portion of the trough.
To the southeast, another surface trough is from 14N35W to
11N37W. Scattered showers are noted along this trough.

A small upper level low is near 25N42W. An upper-level trough
axis extends from near 27N47W to 20N55W to the Virgin Islands to
Hispaniola.

Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected north of
the aforementioned front over the western Atlantic today before
diminishing tonight as the front weakens. A stronger cold front
will move off northern Florida Sat night, with fresh to strong NE
winds and building seas expected behind the front through Mon
night as the front extends from 29N65W to 25N70W to 24N80W by
early Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

AH/ERA
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