[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure, a Central American Gyre, is
centered over Honduras near 16N5W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring over Central America and the Gulf of
Honduras. This system is expected to move west-northwest toward
Belize. The probability of tropical cyclone development during
the next is moderate, but the potential for heavy rainfall,
flash flooding and mudslides over areas of mountainous terrain
is high. Refer to your local meteorological service for specific
information on this potentially dangerous weather pattern.

A cold front extends from southern Louisiana across the NW Gulf
to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W. Strong high pressure in cold
air behind the front has induced gale force winds south of 26N
near the front, based on scatterometer data. Winds are expected
to diminish below gale in the SW Gulf by Wed morning.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 22W from 03N-
14N, moving W at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a distinct
maximum in moisture around the wave axis. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-10N between 20W-25W.

A low amplitude tropical wave is analyzed along 49W from 01N-
14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is shown by model
analyses with this wave. TPW imagery indicates abundant moisture
in its environment. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
occurring from 10N-13N between 48W-54W.

A tropical wave axis is along 56W from 05N-21N, moving west at
15 kt. A 700 mb trough is depicted by model analyses with the
wave, and there is a local maximum in TPW. It is expected that
the tropical wave along 49W will merge with this wave during the
next 36 hours. Moisture associated with the combined waves will
enhance showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles today
through Wednesday, with this activity spreading into the eastern
Caribbean later in the week.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 69W south of
21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 90-120 nm of the wave axis. It is expected to become
diffuse and ill-defined within the next 24-36 hours as it moves
into the western Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N17W
to 05N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05N27W to 00N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident within 120 nm either side of the
convergence zone trough axis.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front, producing gale force winds south of 26N, extends
across the NW Gulf from Louisiana to NE Mexico. The remainder of
the Gulf has mainly 10-15 kt E to SE surface winds. The front is
expected to stall over the northern Gulf near the mouth of the
Mississippi, while the western portion of the front pushes
southward into the western Bay of Campeche. See above for
details about gale conditions west of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave over the central Caribbean is forecast to become
diffuse and ill-defined by Wed morning. Two other tropical waves
east of the Caribbean are forecast to merge and move into the
eastern Caribbean by Wed afternoon.

See the special features section above for more information
about heavy rainfall associated with the Central American Gyre.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See above about the tropical waves in the tropical Atlantic.

A broad ridge of high pressure prevails across the Atlantic. A
dissipating stationary front extends from 31N61W to 28N67W with
minimal shower activity associated with this boundary. A surface
trough, analyzed in the east-central Atlantic from 18N33W to
26N36W, is enhancing trade wind showers north of 19N between 30W
and 41W. This area of showers is moving west at 10-15 kt.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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