[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 PM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Leslie centered near 38.0N 12.6W at 13/1500 UTC or 170
nm WSW of Lisbon Portugal moving NE at 29 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65
kt with gusts to 80 kt. This northeast motion is expected to
continue during the next 24 hours with a decrease in forward
speed. On this track, the center of Leslie will be near the
southwestern portion of the Iberian peninsula later today, and
move inland over portions of Portugal and Spain tonight and
Sunday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. Interests in
Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of Leslie.
Additional information on this system can be found in products
from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the
State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 35W from
00N-10N, moving west at 5-10 kt. This wave is noted in model
guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in its
environment. At this time, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms prevail from 03N-10N between 30W-40W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 42W from 08N42W to a 1012
mb low near 17N42W to 20N42W. The wave is moving west at 10-15
kt. These features are the remnants of Nadine. Scattered moderate
convection is noted with the low mainly north of 18N between
35W-42W.

The tropical wave extends its axis along 56W from 08N-21N based
on satellite imagery and model diagnostics. Movement is westward
at 5-10 kt. A maximum in Total Precipitable Water is noted with
the wave. Scattered showers prevail from 15N-20N between 55W-
60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and extends to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from
10N20W to 10N31W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from
05N37W to 06N53W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical wave along 35W, scattered moderate convection is noted
within 75 nm of the ITCZ near 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from 25N81W to 21N90W, then it weakens
to 24N97W. No significant convection is currently occurring with
the front, and dry air prevails north of it covering the majority
of the basin. Scattered showers cover the southern portion of the
Bay of Campeche south of 20N between 90W-94W. The front will
continue to weaken and wash out as it drifts slowly southward
today. High pressure is building in over the northern Gulf in the
wake of the front. Another cold front will approach the NW Gulf by
Mon night, but will stall across the western Gulf through Wed
night. Behind the front, expect fresh to strong northerly winds
and building seas, with near-gale force winds likely along the
coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is centered near 18N81W. To the southeast,
ample moisture is present along with persistent shower and
thunderstorm activity. These showers and thunderstorms are
affecting eastern portions of the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend
across the eastern Caribbean from the coast of Venezuela to
Puerto Rico between 63W-70W.

A Central American Gyre has formed in the southwest Caribbean.
GOES-16 Total Precipitable water clear shows large scale rotation
associated with the gyre. A surface trough is analyzed through the
developing gyre from 20N80W to a 1009 mb low near 14N81W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-13N between 72W-
82W. This gyre, will slowly shift W toward central America through
early next week. This convection is expected to persist over the
southwest Caribbean. Another surface trough is located over the
Yucatan Peninsula with scattered showers.

Expect moderate trade winds to prevail across the eastern
Caribbean Sea through tonight. Mainly moderate to fresh trades
will prevail across the basin for the start of next week. The
tropical wave associated with the remnants of Nadine is expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for information on Hurricane Leslie,
the remnants of Nadine (now a tropical wave) and the tropical
waves along 34W and 55W.

A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N70W
to 26N80W. Scattered showers prevail about 300 nm ahead of the
front. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed north of La Mona
Passage from 24N65W to 21N67W. The trough is helping to enhance
showers and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico to 23N between 60W-
66W.

Farther east, a surface trough extends south of Leslie from
29N19W to 26N27W. A 1025 mb high is centered near 34N37W, leading
to relatively quiet weather from 25N-32N between 43W-53W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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