[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121152
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael centered near 38.0N 73.1W at
12/0900 UTC or 160 nm ENE of Norfolk Virginia moving ENE at 25
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. An east-
northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward speed
is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the center of Michael will move off the coast of Virginia within
the next hour or two and then begin to race east-northeastward
across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Michael is expected to
intensify over the western Atlantic today. Gale to storm-force
winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme
northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula overnight
and Friday morning when Michael becomes post-tropical off the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Michael is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across southeast Virginia,
southeast Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. Isolated
maximum totals of 7 inches are possible. This rainfall could lead
to life-threatening flash floods. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
for more details.

Hurricane Leslie centered near 31.9N 31.0W at 12/0900 UTC or 420
nm SSW of the Azores moving ENE at 24 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80
kt with gusts to 100 kt. The government of Portugal has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for Madeira Island. A continued east-
northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
today. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward the east
or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie will
pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday. Some gradual weakening
is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie could transition
into a post-tropical low by Sunday. Leslie is expected to produce
storm total accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across Madeira Island
through Sunday. This could lead to flash flooding and landslides
over mountainous terrain. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 29N-37N between 30W-39W. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
for more details.

Tropical Storm Nadine centered near 15.2N 35.5W at 12/0900 UTC
or 640 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at
7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A west-
northwestward to westward motion with an increase in forward speed
is expected today and Saturday. Weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Nadine is expected to dissipate by
Saturday night. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 13N-18N between 31W-36W. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 53W from 07N-21N based on the satellite
imagery and observations, moving west at 10 kt. Maximum in Total
Precipitable Water is noted with the wave. Scattered showers are
near the wave axis particularly North of 12N.

The remnants of a tropical wave is S of Jamaica. This feature is
now a surface trough from 15N79W to 10N79W, nearly stationary.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the
trough. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in the
next day or two. This system is forecast to slowly move westward
toward Nicaragua and Honduras through early next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to support some slow
development, however, interaction with land could limit the chance
of formation on Monday or Tuesday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 13N17W and
continues westward to near 09N20W. The ITCZ extends from 09N20W to
05N30W to 09N36W to 10N51W. The ITCZ resumes west of Tropical
from 10N55W to 10N61W. Other than the convection mentioned above
associated with Nadine, isolated moderate convection is from
03N-09N between 18W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from N Florida near 29N83W to the central
Gulf near 23N90W to 24N98W. Scattered showers are along and
within 240 nm S of the front. This front will continue moving
southeast reaching S Florida Saturday. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate winds across the basin. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate convection is over the southern Bay of Campeche and S
Mexico S of 20N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is over the W Caribbean near 16N83W. A Central
American Gyre is developing in the southwest Caribbean enhancing
convection between 73W-83W. In the same area, a surface trough
has been analyzed. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for
details about this feature. To the east, a diffluent flow aloft
prevails over the northeast Caribbean enhancing convection across
the waters south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Expect moderate tradewinds to prevail across the eastern
Caribbean Sea through Friday. Moderate NE swell from Hurricane
Leslie will move through the Atlantic waters and Caribbean
passages through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for information on Hurricane Leslie, Tropical
Storm Nadine, and the tropical wave along 53W.

Scattered showers prevail across the west Atlantic west of 73W
due to T.S. Michael's rainband. To the east, a 1018 mb high is
centered near 31N53W. A 1019 mb high is over the Canary Islands
near 30N15W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Formosa/ERA
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