[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Michael centered near 33.5N 82.5W at 11/0900 UTC
or 30 nm W of Augusta Georgia moving NE at 18 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A motion toward the northeast at a
faster forward speed is forecast through Friday night. On the
forecast track, the core of Michael will move northeastward
across the southeastern United States through late tonight, and
then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday. Michael is
forecast to re-strengthen some Thursday night and Friday when it
moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a post-
tropical cyclone on Friday. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect
from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck North Carolina. Presently, scattered
moderate to strong convection is north of 30N between 79W-85W.
See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details.

Hurricane Leslie centered near 28.4N 40.1W at 11/0900 UTC or 870
nm SW of the Azores moving ENE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70
kt with gusts to 85 kt. A ENE general motion with some increase
in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Little change
in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, with weakening
forecast over the weekend. Scattered moderate convection is from
25N-32N between 36W-42W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nadine centered near 14.1N 33.3W at 11/0900 UTC
or 520 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at
7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. A NW motion is
anticipated during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is
expected during the next couple of days, and Nadine is forecast to
degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the weekend.
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-18N between 27W-33W.
See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W from 05N-19N, moving west
around 10-15 kt. A maximum in Total Precipitable Water is noted
with the wave. A 700 mb trough is noted between 54W-56W. There is
no convection near the wave axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W S of 18N to Panama and the
EPAC, moving slowly west at 5 kt. Total Precipitable Water
imagery indicates enhanced moisture in the wave's environment.
Scattered showers prevail south of 16N between 72W-80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 11N15W to 05N19W,
then resumes from 11N35W to 12N52W. The ITCZ extends from 10N55W
to 10N62W. Other than the convection mentioned above associated
with Nadine, scattered showers are noted within 200 nm on either
side of the monsoon trough mainly east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.S. Michael is inland over Georgia. Refer to the section above
for details. Conditions will continue to improve today across the
eastern Gulf. At this time, a line of scattered moderate
convection prevails over South Florida and extends west into the
southeast Gulf east of 83W between 23N-27N. To the northwest, a
cold front is just off the Texas coast moving SE. The front will
extend from the Florida Panhandle to west-central Gulf by early
Sat. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the Bay of
Campeche and S Mexico S of 22N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the west-central Caribbean S of Jamaica
with convection E of the axis. Refer to the section above for
details.

An upper level low is over the W Caribbean near 15N81W. An upper
level high is over the E Caribbean near 12N68W. Upper level
moisture covers the entire Caribbean.

Expect moderate tradewinds to prevail across the eastern
Caribbean Sea through Friday. Moderate NE swell from Hurricane
Leslie will move through the Atlantic waters and Caribbean
passages through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Leslie, and Tropical Storm Nadine.

A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N64W.
Another 1016 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 25N27W

An upper level low is centered N of the Leeward Islands near
22N64W with strong subsidence.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Formosa/ERA
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