[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS84 KMOB 101534
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-102345-

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Mobile AL  AL142018
1034 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

**CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL CLOSING IN ON THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baldwin Central,
      Baldwin Coastal, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw,
      Escambia, Escambia Inland, Mobile Central, Mobile Coastal, and
      Santa Rosa Inland
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Escambia Coastal, Okaloosa
      Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, and Santa Rosa Coastal

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 150 miles southeast of Mobile AL or about 100 miles
      southeast of Pensacola FL
    - 29.4N 86.0W
    - Storm Intensity 145 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 10:30 AM CDT, Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 29.5
North, longitude 85.9 West with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph.
Michael is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and is moving
north-northeast at 14 mph. Hurricane Michael is expected to make
landfall early this afternoon in the vicinity of Panama City, and
further strengthening is possible prior to landfall.  Tropical Storm
Force winds are expected to spread inland mainly over the western
Florida panhandle and portions of south central Alabama, with gusts
to tropical storm force possible further west to I-65.  Gusts to
Hurricane Force are possible mainly in coastal Okaloosa county,
although the potential for this is decreasing.  The threat for storm
surge has diminished across the area, with inundation between 1 foot
along the Alabama coast including Mobile Bay, to 1.5 to 2.5 feet along
coastal locations in the western Florida Panhandle. A Coastal Flood
Advisory is now in effect for the entire coastline of Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for
Okaloosa and Covington counties for heavy rainfall and the potential
for localized flash flooding.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding mainly
across the western Florida Panhandle and south central Alabama. Remain
well sheltered from dangerous wind having possible significant impacts.
If realized, these impacts include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across southwestern Alabama.

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
coastal Alabama and coastal areas of the western Florida Panhandle.
Remain well away from locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi,
little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding mainly
across across Covington county, Alabama, and Okaloosa county,
Florida. Remain well guarded against locally hazardous flood waters
having possible limited impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi,
little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across portions of
southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south central Alabama...and
inland southeast Mississippi.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to
move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate,
help keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all
clear to return.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a
battery-powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

During the peak of the storm be ready to move quickly. Keep your
shoes on and rain gear handy. Boots and athletic shoes offer the best
foot protection if you become unexpectedly exposed to the weather.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 5 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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