[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL142018
532 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**HURRICANE MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH LOCAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Appling, Atkinson,
      Bacon, Brantley, Charlton, Clinch, Coastal Camden, Coastal
      Glynn, Coffee, Columbia, Echols, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Inland
      Camden, Inland Glynn, Jeff Davis, Pierce, Suwannee, Ware, and
      Wayne

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 340 miles west-southwest of Jacksonville FL or about 320
      miles southwest of Waycross GA
    - 28.3N 86.5W
    - Storm Intensity 140 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Michael was moving north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and will continue to strengthen before landfall. Michael is forecast
to make landfall over the Florida Panhandle later today as a
major hurricane and then track northeastward over the southeast United
States. There is a good possibility for tropical storm force winds
across southeast Georgia, and for portions of inland northeast
Florida, arriving later this morning. There is also a low possibility
of hurricane force wind gusts for portions of inland southeast Georgia
and the Suwannee River Valley in northeast Florida. These winds could
cause numerous power outages due to falling trees and powerlines. Bands
of rain will affect the area today with associated very gusty winds.
Rainbands more associated with Michael will move into the local areas
beginning this morning through early Thursday morning. Inland and river
flooding is also a concern, mainly across southeast Georgia closest to
the track of Hurricane Michael. A few tornadoes are also possible over
inland areas as rainbands move through.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across inland Southeast Georgia and the
Suwannee River Valley. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across southeast Georgia and the Suwannee River Valley. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible moderate
impacts along the Southeast Georgia Coast. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the northeast Florida coast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around NOON EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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