[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMHX 092120
HLSMHX
NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-100530-

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 13
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL142018
520 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**MICHAEL WILL AFFECT EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS A TROPICAL STORM**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Beaufort, Carteret,
      Craven, Duplin, Greene, Jones, Lenoir, Mainland Dare, Mainland
      Hyde, Martin, Onslow, Outer Banks Dare, Outer Banks Hyde,
      Pamlico, Pitt, Tyrrell, and Washington

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Beaufort, Carteret,
      Craven, Duplin, Greene, Jones, Lenoir, Mainland Dare, Mainland
      Hyde, Martin, Onslow, Outer Banks Dare, Outer Banks Hyde,
      Pamlico, Pitt, Tyrrell, and Washington

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 910 miles southwest of Buxton NC or about 830 miles
      southwest of Morehead City NC
    - 26.0N 86.4W
    - Storm Intensity 120 mph
    - Movement North or 350 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane
on the Florida Panhandle Wednesday, then weaken to a tropical storm as
it tracks through the Carolinas Thursday through Thursday night. There
is still some uncertainty regarding the forecast track and timing, and
a slight shift in either could change specific impacts significantly.

Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected across
portions of Eastern North Carolina later Thursday afternoon through
early Friday. The highest winds are expected near the coast and areas
adjacent to the sounds. Winds here could gust 50 to 70 mph, while
inland areas could see gusts of 40 to 50 mph. These winds could result
in downed trees causing sporadic power outages, and even some minor
structural damage. Be sure to secure any tarps on rooftops from
previous storm damage.

Periods of heavy rain are expected Wednesday through late Thursday
night. At this time rainfall is expected to range from 2 to 3 inches
near the coast to 3 to 5 inches well inland, with locally higher
amounts. This could result in localized flash flooding given the
already saturated grounds. Minor river flooding will also be a concern
across the area, with most rivers still running above normal.

Some minor to locally moderate storm surge impacts will be possible
with Michael. Based on the current forecast track, minor inundation of
1 to 3 feet above ground level will be possible along the coast and
adjacent to the sounds. Local amounts of 3 to 4 feet above ground will
be possible on the sound side of the Outer Banks, especially north of
Cape Hatteras late Thursday night and early Friday as Michael lifts
north of the area. A slight shift in the track could change which
locations may see the most inundation. Minor beach erosion and
overwash will be possible along the beaches as well due to wave run
up.

A few tornadoes will be possible Wednesday night through Thursday
night.

Dangerous marine conditions are also expected, with seas building to
10 to 20 feet. A high threat of rip currents and large and dangerous
shore break is expected.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
coastal areas of Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across inland areas of Eastern North Carolina.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across inland areas of Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across coastal Eastern North Carolina.

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across coastal areas of Eastern North Carolina, especially for the
sound side of the Outer Banks north of Cape Hatteras. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across Eastern North Carolina, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around Midnight, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net