[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Tue Oct 9 10:40:12 CDT 2018

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Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 12
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL142018
1139 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

***MICHAEL EXPECTED TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO***

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Appling, Atkinson, Bacon, Clinch, Coffee, Columbia,
      Echols, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Jeff Davis, Pierce, Suwannee, and
      Ware

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Brantley, Charlton,
      Coastal Camden, Coastal Glynn, Inland Camden, Inland Glynn, and
      Wayne
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Appling, Atkinson,
      Bacon, Clinch, Coffee, Columbia, Echols, Gilchrist, Hamilton,
      Jeff Davis, Pierce, Suwannee, and Ware

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 400 miles southwest of Gainesville FL or about 490 miles
      south-southwest of Waycross GA
    - 25.0N 86.2W
    - Storm Intensity 110 mph
    - Movement North or 350 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Michael was moving north at 12 mph over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico and will continue to strengthen before landfall. Michael is
forecast to make landfall over the Florida Panhandle Wednesday as a
major hurricane and then track northeastward over the southeast United
States. There is a good possibility for tropical storm force winds
across parts of southeast Georgia, and for portions of inland
northeast Florida, arriving as early as early Wednesday morning.
There is also a low possibility of hurricane force wind gusts for
portions of inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee River Valley in
northeast Florida. These winds could cause numerous power outages due
to falling trees and powerlines. Bands of showers will affect the area
today with associated very gusty winds up to 50 mph. Rainbands more
associated with Michael will move into the local areas beginning late
tonight through early Thursday morning. Some inland and river flooding
is possible, mainly across southeast Georgia closest to the track of
Hurricane Michael. Minor coastal flooding is also possible with highest
chance of this occurring over southeast Georgia coast. A few tornadoes
are also possible over inland areas as rainbands move through.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
inland southeast Georgia and the Suwanee Valley area. Potential impacts
in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the rest of the forecast area.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across northwestern zones. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the rest of the area.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the southeast Georgia coast. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the northeast Florida coast.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling
trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate
to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways
open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time to get
there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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