[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KTAE 090354
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ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-091200-

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL142018
1154 PM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018 /1054 PM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018/

This product covers EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA

**MICHAEL CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AND REMAINS A POTENTIALLY
CATASTROPHIC EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Clay, Coffee, Dale, Henry, Lee, Quitman, Randolph, and Terrell
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Bay, Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf,
      Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, Coastal Wakulla, Inland
      Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Wakulla, and South Walton
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Baker, Brooks, Calhoun,
      Calhoun, Central Walton, Colquitt, Decatur, Dougherty, Early,
      Gadsden, Geneva, Grady, Holmes, Houston, Inland Bay, Inland
      Jefferson, Jackson, Leon, Liberty, Miller, Mitchell, North
      Walton, Seminole, Thomas, Washington, and Worth
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Ben Hill, Berrien,
      Cook, Inland Dixie, Inland Taylor, Irwin, Lafayette, Lanier,
      Lowndes, Madison, Tift, and Turner

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 480 miles south of PANAMA CITY or about 450 miles south
      of APALACHICOLA
    - 23.2N 85.3W
    - Storm Intensity 90 mph
    - Movement North or 350 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Little to no change in the track and expected impacts with Hurricane Michael
as it continues to strengthen. Ultimately, Michael is expected to become a major
hurricane. While the forecast center track may wobble east and west a bit, impacts
are expected well away from the center of Michael. The most significant threats
will be deadly storm surge and strong winds beginning as early as Tuesday evening
and peaking by early Wednesday afternoon. Secondary threats will be flooding rain
and isolated tornadoes. Forecast rain amounts would suggest the potential for
isolated flash flooding and could also exacerbate surge flooding along rivers near
the coast.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across the Big Bend coast, especially Apalachee Bay. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

Also, protect against life-threatening surge having possible
significant to extensive impacts across the Florida panhandle.


* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across the Florida panhandle and western Big Bend. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible
significant to extensive impacts across the interior Florida panhandle, southeast
Alabama and extreme southwest Georgia.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across south Georgia, portions of southeast Alabama, the
western and central Big Bend, and the eastern Panhandle. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches
      overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Elsewhere, protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across eastern Florida panhandle...Florida Big Bend...southeastern
Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic information
on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 530 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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