[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Hurricane Michael is centered near 21.7N 85.1W
at 08/1800 UTC, or about 120 nm ENE of Cozumel, Mexico, or 50 nm S
of the western tip of Cuba moving N of 10 degrees at 06 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Satellite
imagery shows that the cloud and convective structure of Michael
continues to improve. The upper-level outflow is also increasing
over all quadrants of Michael as noted by the fanning outward of
the cirrus clouds. The satellite imagery shows numerous strong
convection within 90 nm of the center in the NE and SE quadrants.
Scattered strong convection is elsewhere within 120 mm of the
center in the NE quadrant, and within 60 nm of the center in the W
semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from
18N to 23N between 81W and 84W, including western Cuba. Similar
activity is along the coast of western Cuba west of 83W, and
spreads northward to over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near
25N. Scattered moderate convection is quickly spreading northward
over much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico north of 23N and E of 86W.
Latest NHC forecast has Michael is forecast to increase its
northward motion through Tue night, followed by a northeastward
motion on Wed and Thu. On this forecast track, the center of
Michael will pass near the western tip of Cuba within the next
couple of hours and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tue
and Tue night, is expected to move inland over the Florida
Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wed, and then move
northeastward across the southeastern United States Wed night and
Thu. Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tue or Tue
night. Very heavy rainfall is forecast over western Cuba, with
maximum isolated amounts of 12 inches, possibly leading to life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides. Isolated maximum amounts
of 12 inches are also possible in the Florida panhandle and Big
Bend region into the Carolinas. The Public Advisories are under
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The
Forecast/Advisories are under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and AWIPS
header MIATCMAT4.

Tropical Storm Leslie is north of the area near 34.6N 47.0W at
08/1500 or about 900 nm ENE of Bermuda, or 985 nm W of the Azores
moving ESE, or 120 degrees at 12 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 989 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows banding
features wrapping around the center mainly in the eastern
semicircle, with some evidence of the bands wrapping attempting to
wrap around in the western semicircle. The bands consists of
the scattered moderate isolated strong type intensity from 33N to
35N, and within 60 nm of the center in the S quadrant. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 35N to 37N between 44W and 47W,
and in an outer rainband within 30 nm either side of a line from
33N42W to 35N42W to 36N44W. Leslie is forecast to maintain its
east to southeast to southeast motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected for the next several days as it begins
to strengthen once again this afternoon or tonight. The latest
NHC forecast has Leslie becoming a minimal hurricane near 29.5N
37.0W at 12 UTC on Thu.  The Public Advisories are under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The
Forecast/Advisories are under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and under
AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

A 1010 mb low is over the far eastern Atlantic near 09N26W. The
low is along a tropical wave axis that is along 26W from 03N to
15N. This system is roughly located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving westward at 10
to 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated
strong convection becoming organized with time from 06N to 13N
between 24W and 31W. This system has a medium potential to form
into a tropical depression during next few days while it moves
west-northwestward. However, by late this week, strong upper-
level winds are expected to become unfavorable for development.
See latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W from 04N to 18N.
A 1011 mb low is along the wave near 12N41W. This system is
moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm of the low in the NE quadrant, but is being sheared
by strong southwest winds aloft.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave that earlier was over the eastern
Caribbean was analyzed near 70W as depicted by model diagnostic
guidance. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are east of the wave from 15N to 18N within 60 nm
either side of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal regions of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N22W to the Special Features
1010 mb low at 09N26W and to 08N35W. The ITCZ axis extends from
the 1011 mb low near 12N41W, that is associated with the tropical
wave along 26W, to 09N49W and to 08.5N56W. Outside from
convection associated with the Special Features tropical wave
along 26W and with the tropical wave along 41W, scattered
moderate convection is along and within 60 nm south of the
monsoon trough between 31W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection
is also over the far eastern Atlantic from 03N to 09N between
15W and 21W, and just inland the coast of Africa from 04N to 06N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Michael is over the far northwestern Caribbean Sea,
moving northward at 06 kt. Michael is forecast to continue to
increase its northward motion through Tue night, followed by a
northeastward motion on Wed and Thu. On this forecast track, the
center of Michael will pass near the western tip of Cuba within
the next couple of hours and move into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico Tue and Tue night, is expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wed, and then move
northeastward across the southeastern United States Wed night and
Thu. Expect for scattered to numerous strong convection, with
strong strong gusty winds outside the radii of tropical storm
force winds, to increase along and near the track of Michael.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.

An upper-level trough is squeezed between two ridges, passing
through the coastal border area of Mississippi and Alabama to the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. An upper-level ridge is on either
side of the trough. The ridge that is to the east of the trough is
associated with the upper level anticyclonic outflow that present
to the north of Michael.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Michael is centered near 21.7N 85.1W 978 mb at 2 PM
EDT, moving northward at at 06 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is
60 kt with gusts to 70 knots. See Special Features above for more
details on Tropical Storm Michael.

An upper-level NE-to-SW oriented ridge extends from the Windward
Passage to Nicaragua. A second east-to-west oriented ridge is
along 14N/15N between 63W and 74W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N72W.
Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong
rainshowers are within 600 nm of the upper level cyclonic
circulation center in the E semicircle.

A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure near 32N22W
to 30N22W to 28N35W to 30N31W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are within 30 nm of a line from 32N15W to 29N22W to 28N25W.

A surface ridge will prevail across the area during the entire
period. A surface trough will develop to the north of Hispaniola
tonight, and it will drift west-northwest across the Bahamas
through Monday night. The surface pressure gradient between this
trough and the ridge will support fresh to strong winds to the
northeast of the northern Bahamas. Tropical storm-force wind
speeds from Tropical Storm Michael may clip the waters offshore
N Florida mid- week as the storm moves NE to the north of the
area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
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