[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Mon Oct 8 10:44:07 CDT 2018

WTUS82 KTAE 081543
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-082345-

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL142018
1143 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018 /1043 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018/

This product covers EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA

***MICHAEL COULD DEVELOP INTO A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC EVENT FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST***

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Watch
      for Baker, Brooks, Calhoun, Colquitt, Dougherty, Early, Miller,
      Mitchell, Thomas, and Worth

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Ben Hill, Berrien,
      Clay, Coffee, Cook, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston, Irwin,
      Lafayette, Lanier, Lee, Lowndes, Madison, Quitman, Randolph,
      Terrell, Tift, and Turner
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Bay, Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf,
      Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, Coastal Wakulla, Inland
      Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Wakulla, and South Walton
    - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Baker, Brooks, Calhoun,
      Calhoun, Central Walton, Colquitt, Decatur, Dougherty, Early,
      Gadsden, Grady, Holmes, Inland Bay, Inland Dixie, Inland
      Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Jackson, Leon, Liberty, Miller,
      Mitchell, North Walton, Seminole, Thomas, Washington, and Worth

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 620 miles south of PANAMA CITY or about 590 miles south
      of APALACHICOLA
    - 21.2N 84.9W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 7 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

A potentially catastrophic event is developing. Michael has been
upgraded to a hurricane and is forecast to continue to strengthen as
it moves toward the northern Gulf coast, reaching major hurricane
status tomorrow evening before landfall. With landfall expected along
the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend coast Wednesday, significant impacts
are expected across the area with impacts beginning late Tuesday to
early Wednesday. These will include the possibility of
life-threatening storm surge, widespread power outages, downed trees
blocking access to roads and endangering individuals, structural
damage to homes and businesses, isolated flash flooding and the
potential for a few tornadoes. The main change with this forecast
package is that Michael is stronger and slightly slower than the
previous forecast, increasing our threat for higher winds and wind
gusts as well as storm surge.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts
across coastal portions of the Eastern Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across the Eastern Florida Panhandle...Florida Big Bend...
Southwestern Georgia...and Southeast Alabama.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across Apalachee Bay Coastline. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

Also, prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
to extensive impacts across the Florida Panhandle.

Elsewhere across EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG
BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, little to no
impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the Florida Big Bend and Southwest Georgia. Potential
impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches
      overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Eastern Florida Panhandle and Southeast
Alabama.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the Gulf of Mexico or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or
poor drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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