[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 AM EDT Sun Oct 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Leslie at 07/0300 UTC is near 37.3N
52.9W. Leslie is moving E, or 095 degrees, 11 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots.
Scattered strong rainshowers are within 75 nm of the center in the
E quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
elsewhere within 180 nm of the center in the E semicircle. The
PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LESLIE are transmitted via the WMO header
WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are transmitted via the WMO header
WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

The center of POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN 07/0300 UTC is
near 18.8N 86.6W. The potential cyclone is moving N, or 360
degrees, 06 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to
35 knots. Broad large-scale cyclonic wind flow covers the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from 80W westward.
Numerous strong rainshowers are within 90 nm to 180 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant, and within 270 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES are being transmitted via the
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES are being transmitted via the WMO header
WTNT24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W from 15N southward.
ITCZ precipitation is within 450 nm to the west and southwest of
tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 18N southward.
The position of the wave was moved eastward for the 07/0000 UTC
map analysis based on long-loop satellite imagery. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N to
16N between 30W and 40W.

A tropical wave is entering the eastern part of the Caribbean
Sea, along 60W/61W from 18N southward. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 09N to 15N between 54W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 06N20W, 05N25W, 07N32W,
and 07N37W. The ITCZ is along 10N44W 12N56W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N to 10N
between 19W and 26W, and from 08N to 13N between 40W and 54W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 01N to 08N between 27W and
37W, and from 09N to 15N between 54W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is just off the coast
of SE Louisiana. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are spread out across the
open Gulf waters.

A surface trough extends from 21N86W in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, to 27N84W in the SE Gulf of Mexico. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are
to the east of the line that runs from the NE corner of the
Yucatan Peninsula to 29N85W at the coast of Florida and the
Florida Big Bend. Expect moisture to move from the NW Caribbean
Sea toward the SE Gulf of Mexico during the next several days.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen near 18.8N 86.6W 1004 mb
at 11 PM EDT moving N at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt
gusts 35 kt. Fourteen will move to 19.5N 86.5W Sun morning, 21.0N
86.2W Sun evening, 22.3N 86.1W Mon morning, 23.8N 86.3W Mon
evening, and 27.4N 87.2W Tue evening. Fourteen will move inland
over 32.0N 85.0W late Wed, and inland over 38.5N 77.5W Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The center of POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN 07/0300 UTC is
near 18.8N 86.6W, in the NW corner of the area.

An E-to-W/NE-to-SW oriented ridge covers most of the rest of the
area, away from the area of the Potential Tropical Cyclone.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the rest of
the area that is from 15N northward between 60W and 78W.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen near 18.8N 86.6W 1004 mb at
11 PM EDT moving N at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35
kt. Fourteen will move to 19.5N 86.5W Sun morning, 21.0N 86.2W
Sun evening, 22.3N 86.1W Mon morning, 23.8N 86.3W Mon evening, and
27.4N 87.2W Tue evening. Fourteen will move inland near 32.0N
85.0W late Wed, and inland over 38.5N 77.5W Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N70W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow is within 300 nm of the center in the S
quadrant, and within 240 nm of the center elsewhere. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 480
nm to 660 nm of the upper level center position in the SE
quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
elsewhere within 480 nm of the center in the SE quadrant.

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 32N25W. A surface trough
extends from the low center to 26N26W and 21N32W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 30N to 32N
between 26W and 28W.

A surface ridge will prevail across the area during the entire
period. A surface trough will develop to the north of Hispaniola
on Sunday night, and it will drift west-northwest across the
Bahamas through Monday night. The surface pressure gradient
between this trough and the ridge will support fresh to strong
winds to the northeast of the northern Bahamas.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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